Paper Gains
The High Holy Days
9/22/2025, 7:43:13 PM
Economic Summary
- The Fed (and Canada) cut rates by 25 basis points; the FOMC had at least one dissent, highlighting internal debate on pace of easing and risks.
- Market focus is shifting: downside employment risk has dominated, but there is rising concern that inflation upside risk could re-emerge, which would complicate the easing narrative.
- Initial GDP Q2 revisions trimmed growth to ~1.6%; the final Q2 release this week is expected and likely non‑market moving given prior previews.
- Fed watches core PCE year-over-year as its preferred inflation measure; a hotter-than-expected print (e.g., ~2.9% consensus cited) would spark pronounced market reactions.
- Seasonality note: the High Holy Days (Rosh Hashanah / Yom Kippur) historically suppress trading volume and can produce choppy, mean-reverting price action.
Bullish
- Apple: strong iPhone 17 weekend sales, supplier output boosts, and multiple analyst price-target upgrades.
- NVIDIA: Jensen Huang comments on much larger data‑center/gigawatt needs driving chipset demand.
- Tesla: price-target upgrades and improved political optics supporting sentiment.
- Robinhood: event-contract volumes (NFL) ramping quickly, potential material new revenue stream.
- Rivian: constructive technical base and steady channel breakout attempts; buys on dips sub-$12.
Bearish
- Rate cuts could spark upside inflation risk, forcing policy rethink and market volatility.
- Thin volumes around the High Holy Days (Rosh Hashanah/Yom Kippur) increase chop and mean-reversion risk.
- Long-duration bond yields moving higher could reallocate risk away from growth equities.
- Amazon sitting at dynamic trend support — high risk of a failed bounce or trampoline rip.
Bullish tickers
AAPLNVDATSLAHOODRIVNMSFTSMCI
Bearish tickers
AMZNTLT
AAPL
4 price targets
310320325350
Bullish
Strong iPhone 17 sales commentary and analyst upgrades support breakout toward new all-time highs.
Bearish
Valuation concerns and reliance on iPhone cycles could leave it vulnerable to mean reversion.
NVDA
Bullish
Jensen Huang comments on much larger multi‑gigawatt data-center demand, supporting NVDA and data-center suppliers.
Bearish
Position could be sensitive to any setback in AI/data-center capex expectations.
TSLA
2 price targets
500465
Bullish
Analyst upgrades and improving political optics (Elon/Trump interaction) lifted sentiment and price.
Bearish
Large rallies could be vulnerable to volatility and are risky to add to at highs.
HOOD
Bullish
Rapid, under-covered growth in event betting contracts (NFL ramp) could materially expand revenue if sustained.
Bearish
Street is largely blind to event-contract revenues; execution or disclosure risks remain.
RIVN
3 price targets
15.8414.5918.54
Bullish
Fourth attempt breakout inside a constructive channel; dips near ~$11.50 seen as buyable historically.
Bearish
Volatile range behavior — can gap down and sell off quickly on failure of the channel.
AMZN
Bullish
AI and cloud exposure provide upside if it holds support and participation in the AI/capex cycle continues.
Bearish
Sitting at the bottom of a long parallel channel — high risk if the dynamic support ('trampoline') fails.
MSFT
Bullish
Settling above weekly highs and 45-day consolidations, positioned to benefit from AI/enterprise strength.
Bearish
Could disappoint if broader tech rotation stalls; near-term pullbacks possible after strong moves.
SMCI
Bullish
Would benefit from any acceleration in large-scale data-center builds tied to AI demand.
Bearish
Tied to data-center capex cycles; faces execution and demand-timing risks.
DELL
Bullish
Stands to gain from rising data-center deployments if AI infrastructure demand accelerates.
Bearish
Enterprise hardware cyclicality poses execution and demand risk versus stretched expectations.
MU
1 price targets
116
Bullish
Post-earnings strength and semiconductor demand dynamics have pushed Microtrends higher.
Bearish
Memory cyclicality and recent run create vulnerability to sell-the-news and mean reversion.
QCOM
Bullish
Snapdragon ubiquity in phones implies upside if iPhone and Android cycles remain healthy.
Bearish
Highly exposed to phone cycle swings; licensing and handset demand risk remain.
PLTR
Bullish
Steady performer for long-term holders; technical holds suggest continued interest.
Bearish
Can be choppy without sustained enterprise contract wins and visible revenue growth.
AMD
Bullish
Steady progress in product cycles keeps AMD viable in chip-content rotation.
Bearish
Competition and deal execution risks (with Samsung/others) could cap near-term upside.
BMNR
Bullish
Corporate action to accumulate Ethereum supply hints at crypto-linked strategy and potential upside if executed.
Bearish
If core business fails, pivoting to a crypto-treasury play or execution missteps create downside risk.
TLT
Bullish
If risk-off reappears, long-duration Treasuries/ TLT could attract safe-haven flows.
Bearish
Long-duration bond ETF is reacting to yield moves; rising long yields imply TLT downside.
UNH
Bullish
Long-term structural exposure keeps it favorable for patient holders if above major support.
Bearish
Breakout attempts can be fades; downside if it fails key trend support levels.
People mentioned
Jensen HuangSam AltmanElon MuskDonald TrumpDan IvesMark GurmanVlad TenevTom LeeJerome PowellAustan GoolsbeeRaphael BosticCharlie KirkEvanMiss CleoAmitJuanWolfiePatrick