Paper Gains
The High Holy Days [LIVE]
9/22/2025, 7:09:39 PM
Economic Summary
- The Fed (and Canada) cut rates by 25 bps, initiating a rate-cutting cycle that shifts market focus from inflation to downside employment risk; watch payrolls and jobless claims for labor-market direction.
- Core inflation (the Fed's focus) is tracking near 2.9% year-over-year; a hotter-than-expected PCE/CPI print would jeopardize the easing narrative and likely spark market volatility.
- Seasonality: the High Holy Days (Rosh Hashanah/Yom Kippur) historically see lower volume and slightly choppier markets (sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur), which may amplify short-term moves.
- Ahead this week are several Fed speakers and data prints — PMI flash, new home sales, final Q2 GDP (revisionary), and PCE — any surprises could move sentiment and risk assets.
- Flows: recent moves show rotation out of long-duration bonds into cash, gold, and safe havens; if long yields continue to reprice higher, equity dispersion and sector leadership may shift (watch TLT and dollar moves).
Bullish
- Apple set up for new all-time highs after a strong breakout and follow-through; continued upside expected.
- NVIDIA benefiting from AI momentum and near all-time highs; breakout could push it substantially higher.
- Rivian showing constructive channel structure — buyable dips and multiple short-term resistance break levels.
- Crypto treasury buying (ETH) and corporate accumulation themes support crypto-related equities/treasury plays.
- Tesla and Microsoft exhibiting breakout/steady setups that could extend gains if they hold support levels.
Bearish
- BMNR faces meaningful dilution risk from warrants exercisable at $87.50, which could flood shares if exercised.
- A hot PCE/CPI print could revive inflation concerns and reverse the current dovish rate-cut narrative.
- Thin volumes during the High Holy Days increase the chance of choppy, erratic market moves and sharp intraday reversals.
- Amazon sitting on dynamic trend support — a failed bounce could trigger rapid downside (trampoline rip scenario).
Bullish tickers
AAPLNVDARIVNTSLAETHMSFT
Bearish tickers
BMNRAMZNCTAS
AAPL
5 price targets
260310320325350
Bullish
Strong breakout and follow-through set up for new all-time highs; consolidation breakout likely to continue higher.
Bearish
Short-term momentum may be stretched after a sharp multi-day move; pullbacks likely but not guaranteed.
NVDA
1 price targets
200
Bullish
AI-driven demand and momentum make NVDA a clear breakout candidate toward higher levels if it holds support.
Bearish
Technically extended after a big run; a failed breakout could trigger fast covering reversals by late shorts.
RIVN
3 price targets
1515.8416.65
Bullish
Fourth attempt channel structure suggests buyable dips; breakout levels imply meaningful upside continuation.
Bearish
Highly volatile trading with risk of sharp intraday corrections if momentum stalls.
TSLA
4 price targets
130140155465
Bullish
Holding key breakout levels with supportive technicals; could extend to higher target bands if momentum holds.
Bearish
Elevated valuations and stretched moves make short-term entries risky; sharp reversals possible.
MSFT
Bullish
Base formation and weekly strength position Microsoft to follow-through higher, potentially mirroring other big-cap breakouts.
Bearish
Could appear stuck in consolidation; short-term pullbacks possible after big runs.
AMZN
Bullish
If the support holds, it offers a volatile but tradable bounce candidate and potential straddle opportunity.
Bearish
Sitting on the bottom of a dynamic trend support (trampoline); a true break could lead to rapid downside.
BMNR
2 price targets
87.5120
Bullish
Company accumulating Ethereum (now ~2% supply stated) and raising capital could fund large ETH purchases that support valuation.
Bearish
Warrants exercisable at $87.50 create clear dilution risk if exercised and sold into the market.
ETH
Bullish
Corporate crypto treasuries and large weekly buys provide fundamental demand support into a typical Q4 crypto cycle.
Bearish
Crypto remains susceptible to short-term pattern mockouts (Bart Simpson moves) and liquidity-driven pullbacks.
People mentioned
EvanWolfieTom LeeAnthony ScaramucciElon MuskJerome PowellAustan GoolsbeeRaphael BosticDonald TrumpAmitMiss CleoDan Ice