Paper Gains
The trap is set!
4/14/2025, 5:58:50 PM
Economic Summary
- Trump exempted smartphones and other electronics from Chinese tariffs, which changed the trade-war narrative and reduced an immediate headline risk for some tech names (e.g., AAPL, NVDA).
- Recent 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions saw weak demand as major buyers (China, Japan) stepped back, pushing yields higher; rising long-term yields increase duration risk and threaten equity valuations (affects bond ETF TLT and broad stocks).
- Macro data had muted market impact while trade headlines dominated; CPI/PPI prints were softer but less market-moving, whereas nonfarm payrolls (NFP) remain a clear technical pivot — trading above the NFP high is bullish, below the NFP low is bearish.
Bullish
- Bought Apple (AAPL) long as a patient, longer-term position.
- Silver (SLV) and gold-miners (GDX) trade bullishly; accumulation and call positions in place.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) accumulation since reclaiming $92; daily closes over $113–115 would confirm stronger breakout.
- Buy dips if market holds above the NFP Friday high; chop between Friday high/low is tradable.
Bearish
- Rising long-term bond yields could cause duration-driven selling in equities.
- Renewed or escalating trade tariffs could reopen downside and push market lows lower.
- Palantir (PLTR) remains vulnerable after prior rapid drawdowns; risk of sharp pullback.
- TLT volatility and weak auction demand signal bond-market stress that hurts stocks.
Bullish tickers
AAPLSLVGDXNVDANFLXHOOD
Bearish tickers
PLTRTLT
AAPL
Bullish
Host bought Apple long as a longer-term/ patient position.
NVDA
3 price targets
92115127
Bullish
Out of the woods since reclaiming $92; closes above ~$113.50–115 would signal strong breakout toward mid-$120s.
Bearish
Vulnerable if a bond-market ‘Armageddon’ occurs; could see very deep pullbacks under extreme stress.
HOOD
Bullish
Sold cash-secured puts (38 strike), indicating a bullish/neutral stance into expiry.
Bearish
Highly volatile IPO/retail-trading dynamics and listing risks from Chinese ADR context.
PLTR
1 price targets
120
Bullish
Has new defense contracts and is a candidate for covered-call/option-protection strategies.
Bearish
History of sharp short-term drawdowns; previous instance saw ~33% fall from similar levels.
TLT
1 price targets
92
Bullish
A bounce to around $92 is seen as a plausible recovery level for the long-bond ETF.
Bearish
High volatility and weak technicals; not clearly ‘out of the weeds’ after recent stress.
SLV
1 price targets
31
Bullish
Host is long silver and considering adding SLV/31-call exposure as a catch-up trade.
GDX
Bullish
Gold-miners ETF breakout on weekly chart; host holds GDX calls and views sector as catching up.
NFLX
Bullish
Expected surge overnight into Netflix earnings, though momentum may be sold into by afternoon.
ASML
TSM
BAC
JNJ
C
UAL
GS
META
People mentioned
JasonJamie DimonRory McIlroyScottie SchefflerBryson DeChambeauJustin RoseJerome PowellChristine LagardeAmpMiss CleoArnieJim Cramer