Paper Gains
Trump Xi Truce Save Stocks
10/20/2025, 8:25:56 PM
Economic Summary
- A scheduled meeting between US and Chinese leaders plus a 90-day tariff delay has been a near-term bullish driver for markets, lifting risk-on positioning into earnings season.
- CPI is scheduled for Friday but a possible government shutdown could delay or backdate economic releases, raising the risk of a sudden data 'flood' and short-term volatility.
- Falling rates and the expectation of rate cuts are supporting cyclical sectors: biotech (IBB), homebuilders (ITB), and regional banks (KRE) are receiving notable inflows and leadership rotation.
- Earnings season is ramping up (Netflix, Tesla, SMCI, Dell noted); strong results from infrastructure/AI-related names like SMCI and Dell are expected to be market movers.
Bullish
- US-China détente (90-day tariff delay and scheduled meeting) lifting risk appetite.
- Rate declines should lift biotech and homebuilders, benefiting ETFs like IBB and ITB.
- Retail platform growth and resilience (Robinhood HOOD) shows strong retail participation.
- SMCI potentially winning XAI-related deals could drive a near-term earnings pop.
Bearish
- Possible government shutdown could delay CPI and other data, creating volatility.
- Flood of backdated economic data later this week may trigger short-term market sell-offs.
- Overhead technical resistance in SPY around the 670–685 range could cap near-term gains.
- Staples and some refiners face currency/cost pressure from dollar strength (e.g., STZ, PG).
Bullish tickers
SMCIIBBITBHOOD
Bearish tickers
SPYCOREWEAVESTZPG
SMCI
5 price targets
6668705550
Bullish
Potential XAI-related deals and strong pre-earnings momentum could push SMCI into the mid-to-high 60s and near 70.
Bearish
Has historical 'scar tissue' and can gap down on offerings; support levels in the low 50s are critical.
HOOD
1 price targets
140
Bullish
High retail engagement and platform growth are bullish signals for continued user flows and share demand.
Bearish
Operational issues and outage risk can create short-term volatility despite retail interest.
IBB
Bullish
Lower rates favor biotech valuations, driving strong sector bids as rate cuts become more likely.
Bearish
Biotech remains headline and approval-calendar driven; FDA dates can spark steep pullbacks.
ITB
Bullish
Builder sentiment and rate easing are supporting a potential multi-month recovery in homebuilders.
Bearish
Homebuilders remain sensitive to sudden macro surprises and data; can be choppy around CPI and housing data.
SPY
5 price targets
673683680655653
Bullish
If SPY can close and hold above 670, extension toward 680+ is plausible as momentum resumes.
Bearish
Significant overhead resistance near 670–685 and risk of mean reversion if economic data disappoints.
COREWEAVE
Bullish
A reclaim above ~128–130 would indicate a failed H&S and could be a strong bullish signal.
Bearish
Multiple failed attempts to reclaim prior levels and potential head-and-shoulders setup; below ~126.50 looks problematic.
ORCL
Bullish
Enterprise cloud demand can provide steady tailwinds if execution remains strong.
Bearish
Cloud-native outages and broader tech rotation could pressure near-term performance.
STZ
Bullish
If it stabilizes above key support, longer-term staples demand could support a recovery.
Bearish
Constellation Brands facing weak price action and currency/input cost pressure; chart looks unhealthy.
PG
Bullish
Defensive demand could reappear if risk sentiment sours, supporting relative stability.
Bearish
Procter & Gamble and other staples susceptible to dollar strength and input cost pressures.
People mentioned
Graham RattanJesse AceSamBishopBrandonEvanJosh BrownElon MuskVladimir PutinDonald TrumpXi JinpingMiss CleoBo NixMary TasslerArchie