Paper Gains
Where are we going?!?!
3/17/2025, 5:19:56 PM
Economic Summary
- Inflation prints came in softer than expected: core CPI YoY 3.1% vs 3.2 consensus and month-over-month core 0.2% vs 0.3 expected, and PPI headline ~0% (core -0.1%), reducing immediate Fed-rate-hike panic.
- Labor market still shows resilience (JOLTs, quits running a bit hotter), leaving growth the key risk that could shift market leadership if it weakens.
- Market positioning favored gold and bonds as investors priced a potential growth slowdown (stagflationary fears), while equity money flows were uneven—internals suggested potential support despite mixed price action.
- Key near-term catalysts: Nvidia GTC (Jensen), FOMC and post-FOMC Fed speakers (Powell, Williams), Japan rate decision, earnings resumption in mid-April, and tariff news around April 2 that could materially affect sentiment.
Bullish
- Market may be 'done going down' and due for a countertrend bounce.
- NVDA could bounce into GTC/Jensen catalyst; key pivot levels noted (115, 123).
- HOOD showing strength after sharp decline; good buying opportunity for accumulation.
- If SPY holds above 565 daily open/close, that would support further upside.
Bearish
- Growth-scare/stagflation risk: money flowing to gold suggests investors fearing slowing growth despite lower inflation readings.
- Tariffs/China uncertainty around April 2 could create two-way volatility and keep buyers sidelined.
- SMCI looks like a bear flag; failure under resistance (~48) would be a good short setup.
- High volatility (VIX ~29) causes overshoots and choppy action, raising risk for leveraged longs.
Bullish tickers
NVDAHOODSPYVST
Bearish tickers
SMCIGOLDPDD
HOOD
4 price targets
41443833
Bullish
Showing new highs recently and identified as the speaker's largest position after buying the dip; candidate for accumulation.
Bearish
Had a sharp decline; overshoot downside targets (33–38) were hit and risks remain if volatility spikes.
AAPL
1 price targets
209
Bullish
The host added at the lows and views it as a buy-the-dip opportunity if conditions stabilize.
Bearish
Speaker called out 209 as a downside reference and cautioned about adding too heavily at lows.
NVDA
2 price targets
115123
Bullish
Seen as one of the likeliest bouncers into the GTC catalyst; 115s attractive, 123 is the pivot for bigger upside.
Bearish
123 is a critical pivot where failure would be meaningful; momentum names can reverse quickly on growth fears.
TSLA
2 price targets
250210
Bullish
Speaker bought a few shares at lows and notes long-term optionality (FSD), but cautions sizing and conviction.
Bearish
Experienced large downside swings (target 250 then fell to ~210), showing how momentum can punish oversized positions.
SMCI
5 price targets
434243.546.548
Bullish
Short-term day trades possible above ~43.5 toward mid-40s, but speaker prefers not to be long without clear hold.
Bearish
Appears to be forming a bear flag; a failure after a run to ~48 would be a high-probability short.
VST
5 price targets
116125136166180
Bullish
Looks constructive with dividend and trajectory toward mid-100s–high-100s into earnings if it holds pivots.
Bearish
Constructive but not immune to broader chop; pivot at ~116 would be a risk level to watch.
SPY
3 price targets
565555550
Bullish
Holding yesterday's highs and internals show net flows into longs; daily open/close above 565 would favor upside continuation.
Bearish
If SPY fails to hold local pivot levels (565 down toward 555–550), a renewed sell-off could follow.
PDD
Bullish
Some China charts look constructive; potential upside if stimulus or positive headlines materialize.
Bearish
China stimulus/tariff headlines add uncertainty; speaker is not focused on China names but flagged uneven news flow.
GOLD
Bullish
Money flow into gold indicates investor hedging against a growth scare and weakening equity internals.
Bearish
Gold ripping suggests stagflation fear; if growth data stabilizes, gold could reverse sharply.
People mentioned
AmpRachelCleoJensenJerome PowellWilliamsVictorPaper