Sam Badawi
A MARKET OPEN | Show Must Go On
10/9/2025, 2:14:50 PM
Economic Summary
- Federal Reserve hosted a community bank conference with remarks framed as low-drama; Fed committed to tailoring supervision for community banks to reduce burdens while keeping safety and soundness.
- AI and data infrastructure demand remains strong: ClickHouse (usage-based data platform) announced IPO plans and counts Tesla, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta among customers, indicating robust consumption-driven revenue growth and raising valuations in private markets.
- China purchased roughly $49 billion of chip-making equipment despite U.S. export controls, implying continued reliance on advanced compute supply chains and potential upside to semiconductor demand and vendor revenues (possible positive for NVDA, AMD).
- Semiconductor ecosystem strength is visible in memory and component names (Micron and other suppliers at or near highs), supporting the view that chip-related capex and cloud/AI deployments remain elevated.
Bullish
- AI demand accelerating benefits chipmakers and cloud providers (NVDA, AMD, MSFT).
- ClickHouse IPO could unlock significant value for Nebius (28% stake).
- Semiconductor suppliers and memory companies (e.g., MU) hitting highs, signaling strong industry demand.
- CleanSpark has Bitcoin-mining upside and optionality to pivot toward AI/cloud infrastructure.
Bearish
- SEC probe into AppLovin's advertising practices could pressure the stock and slow momentum.
- Tesla vehicle traffic-probe may create short-term headwinds for TSLA.
- Short reports on high-beta names (e.g., MSTR/BMNR targets) can create volatility and downside.
Bullish tickers
NVDAAMDMUCLSKVKTX
Bearish tickers
APPTSLABMNRMSTR
NVDA
Bullish
Central beneficiary of accelerating AI demand and increased data-center GPU sales; cited in chip and cloud growth narratives.
Bearish
Regulatory/geo tensions and short-term probes or broader market pullbacks could weigh on NVDA despite strong fundamentals.
AMD
Bullish
Demand from AI and hyperscalers keeps AMD in a favorable position alongside Nvidia for data-center growth.
Bearish
Post-run profit-taking possible after recent multi-month gains and headline-driven volatility.
MU
Bullish
Micron at or near highs, reflecting strong memory demand tied to AI and GPU builds.
Bearish
Memory cyclicality could introduce downside if AI capex slows unexpectedly.
CLSK
Bullish
Bitcoin-mining exposure plus optionality to move into AI data centers creates upside in both crypto and AI narratives.
Bearish
Operational execution and capital deployment risks if pivot to AI/cloud proves slower or costlier than expected.
VKTX
Bullish
Recent recovery and market speculation about acquisition for its drug candidate supporting share strength.
Bearish
Clinical trial setbacks can cause sharp drawdowns; biotech M&A hopes may not materialize.
APP
Bullish
As an ad tech/software business, long-term software margins could support valuation if regulatory issues clear.
Bearish
SEC probe and short reports alleging retargeting/fraudulent ad practices risk regulatory and reputational damage.
TSLA
Bullish
Still trading above key moving averages and remains in a broader bullish technical trend per the discussion.
Bearish
U.S. probe into vehicle traffic violations may create near-term selling pressure.
BMNR
Bullish
Streamer expressed medium-term bullish view tied to crypto strength and sector leadership; historically correlated with Bitcoin.
Bearish
Targeted short reports (e.g., Carisdale) can trigger volatility and downside intraday.
MSTR
Bullish
Holds large bitcoin exposure; rallies in Bitcoin can lift MSTR's valuation materially.
Bearish
Short sellers have targeted MSTR as a way to express views on bitcoin exposure and company NAV.
People mentioned
Jerome PowellMichelle BowmanMickey BowmanAaron KatzManuelNeilCouch InvestorWarren PyeAmit ReddyAhmedChrisNancy PelosiJim ChanosJeremy RomeAdam FaroghiElon MuskStanley Druckermiller