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Sam Badawi

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Sam Badawi

LIVE IREN Q3 Earnings | Opendoor and The Trade Desk

11/6/2025, 3:45:54 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • The Microsoft AI Cloud contract is $9.7B total and is expected to deliver ~ $1.9B in annual revenue once four phases are live, with an estimated ~85% project EBITDA margin, supporting strong unlevered and levered returns.
  • Management projects the GPU/cloud capex at $5.8B (GPUs and ancillaries); 20% customer prepayments fund ~one-third of initial capex and securitization of GPUs/contracted cash flows could raise ~ $2.5B.
  • Q1 FY26 operating performance: total revenue $240M (up 28% QoQ, 355% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $92M, though operating expenses rose due to higher depreciation and share-based payroll taxes.
  • Data center supply-side posture: Childress engineered for single 100 MW superclusters and 130–200 kW per rack densities; Sweetwater planned up to 2 GW (2,000 MW) of build-out capacity secured from the grid.
  • Financing posture: issued $1B zero-coupon convertible notes, secured $400M in GPU financing to date, and ended October with ~$1.8B cash; remaining capex to be funded via mix of cash, operating flows, GPU-backed lending, and equity/debt.
Bullish
  • Large Microsoft AI Cloud contract ($9.7B) unlocking ~$1.9B annual revenue and strong contracted cash flows.
  • Very high projected project economics: ~85% project EBITDA margin and management-cited 35%+ equity IRRs.
  • Scalable assets: Sweetwater (2 GW) and Childress (multi-horizon, up to 450 MW secured power) enable massive growth.
  • Strong demand for high-density, liquid-cooled GPU capacity (NVIDIA GB300/NVL72) and pre-contracting from customers.
  • Recent financings ( $1B convertible notes, $400M GPU financing ) and $1.8B cash position support near-term capex.
Bearish
  • Significant remaining funding need (~$1.4B) reliant on capital markets, securitizations, or equity issuance.
  • Management left some analyst questions unanswered on the call, indicating disclosure and clarity limitations.
  • Higher-spec design increases incremental capex and operating costs, compressing near-term margins.
  • GPU refresh and auxiliary equipment may require future retrofits, creating reuse uncertainty and upgrade costs.
  • Concentration risk: large exposure to a handful of hyperscalers could leave recontracting risk at term end.
Sam Badawi

Are Novo Nordisk and Meta CHEAP? | Hidden Edge Pod

11/6/2025, 1:08:13 AM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Toast (TOST) is described as a fast-growing software/POS company with ARR and gross payment volume growing (~24%), and a base case where sustained 20–25% growth plus margin expansion to ~30% would compound value materially.
  • Fiserv (FISV) currently shows very high historical EBITDA margins (~44–45%) driven by price increases; management is dialing back pricing, which could reduce near-term guidance but still leaves scope for a normalized margin (~35–37%) and substantial enterprise-value upside given large EBITDA and high operating cash flow.
  • High debt at FISV (~$28–30B) is manageable given low servicing cost (~5%) and limited near-term maturities, allowing potential debt paydown and continued buybacks that could materially lift EPS and share price if EBITDA recovers.
Bullish
  • Toast (TOST) could grow ARR and locations 20–25% annually and reach ~30% EBITDA margin
  • Fiserv (FISV) looks cheap on EV/EBITDA with potential margin normalization and debt paydown upside
  • High operating cashflow at FISV could fund buybacks and reduce share count, boosting EPS
Bearish
  • Fiserv's past price hikes drove customer churn and opened the door to competitors like Toast
  • Toast's $28B market cap is not cheap given competition and uncertain margin realization
  • Management short-term focus on buybacks over reinvestment risks long-term product competitiveness
  • Timing risk: value names can fall further; 2026 may be a trough for some businesses
Sam Badawi

LIVE Cipher Mining Q3 Earnings | AI Infrastructure with Sam

11/3/2025, 12:53:11 AM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • There is a current shortage of data-center capacity: major cloud providers (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META) are signing with third parties because they cannot build capacity quickly enough, implying persistent structural demand for outsourced capacity.
  • The industry is shifting toward renting access to hardware rather than full-stack leases, as exemplified by deals with providers and partners like Dell and specialized suppliers, which creates more recurrent, predictable revenue.
  • Smaller clients as well as hyperscalers are participating in these capacity and hardware-access deals, broadening the market beyond only the largest cloud companies and signaling widespread demand across customer sizes.
Bullish
  • Hyperscalers and large cloud customers are signing third-party capacity deals because they cannot build enough data-center supply quickly, implying sustained demand for outsourced hardware and colocation providers.
  • Hardware rental or 'access to hardware' business models (versus full-stack rentals) are becoming more recurrent and create predictable revenue streams for providers and partners like Dell or specialty data-center firms.
  • High demand from major cloud providers (AWS/AMZN, Microsoft/MSFT, Google/GOOGL, Meta/META) suggests continued strong cloud consumption, supporting vendors across the supply chain.
Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

LIVE Amazon Earnings Review and More | Late Night with Sam

10/31/2025, 6:04:52 AM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Amazon (AMZN) reported AWS growth around 20%, above the 18–19% threshold that investors feared, which materially supported the stock in the earnings reaction.
  • CapEx is accelerating toward AI and custom silicon: the speaker cited Amazon spending run-rates and an annual CapEx increase (discussed ~$90B year-to-date and ~$125B full-year), implying heavier investment to compete with Microsoft (MSFT) in cloud and AI infrastructure.
  • ASICs and custom silicon (Google TPUs, Amazon Tranium/Inferentia/Graviton) are reshaping cloud economics by lowering client costs and creating a hardware-software moat, benefiting chip vendors like Marvell (MRVL) and Broadcom (AVGO).
Bullish
  • AMZN AWS revenue grew ~20%, beating expectations and supporting the stock.
  • Rising CapEx toward AI infrastructure and custom silicon strengthens cloud moats and long-term growth.
  • Chip designers like MRVL and AVGO benefit from increased demand for ASICs and AI hardware.
Bearish
  • AWS legacy East Coast infrastructure strain could be a broader, ongoing problem for Amazon (AMZN).
  • Market is in a rapid 'breakneck' rally that is vulnerable to sharp pullbacks.
  • Trades like BMNR and CleanSpark (CLSK) are highly technical and fundamentally uncertain.
Sam Badawi

Amazon Earnings Review | Bullish AI

10/31/2025, 12:21:50 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

AMIT | Apple and Amazon Earnings

10/30/2025, 8:04:19 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Amazon reported net sales up 13% year-over-year with AWS revenue up 20% to $33 billion; North America +11% and International +14%, signaling broad-based demand for AMZN.
  • Operating income for Amazon was $17.4 billion; the speaker expects AMZN to reach roughly a 20% operating margin by 2029, projecting ~$200 billion operating income on over $1 trillion revenue if trends continue.
  • Speaker emphasizes that AWS is reaccelerating growth to ~20%, which is a primary driver of Amazon's improving profitability and long-term outlook.
Bullish
  • Amazon (AMZN): AWS is reaccelerating with 20% year-over-year growth and strong segment results, driving company-wide margin expansion.
  • Meta (META): Speaker argues Meta is misunderstood by the market, implying potential upside as sentiment corrects.
Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Live Q3 Earnings Review | Part 1 (Late Night)

10/30/2025, 3:49:39 AM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • The market feels extended with very shallow pullbacks (often only ~2.5% from highs), making a faster correction likely; the speaker expects a possible quick ~10% drawdown and is positioning with cash and hedges.
  • Technical levels matter: recovering the 200‑day moving average on SPY was a bullish confirmation; conversely Bitcoin and Ethereum nearing/breaking their 200‑day moving averages pose downside risk for crypto‑linked assets (e.g., BMNR, COIN, MSTR).
  • Earnings season is a major near‑term catalyst with many names reporting (Amazon AMZN, Cloudflare, Reddit, Apple AAPL, Coinbase COIN, Atlassian TEAM, Workday WDAY), and AI narrative may lift software plays while others remain vulnerable.
  • Illiquid options markets make hedging difficult for some positions, prompting defensive strategies like selling call spreads and reducing concentrated high‑beta allocations.
Bullish
  • Amazon as a long‑term hold unlikely to be permanently impaired by short pullbacks.
  • Atlassian could rally post‑earnings due to AI interest hitting its product.
  • Profitable Bitcoin miners with infrastructure (Iron, Cipher) may prove resilient.
Bearish
  • High‑beta growth names will fall sharply if the broader market corrects or goes risk‑off.
  • Crypto‑correlated stocks (e.g., BMNR) can plunge if Ethereum or Bitcoin break their 200‑day moving averages.
  • Many speculative companies lack durable fundamentals and could decline 50–90% in a downturn.
  • Options are illiquid for some positions, making hedging costly or impractical during stress.
Sam Badawi

Google, Meta, and Microsoft Earnings

10/29/2025, 7:59:27 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Earnings season drove big intraday rotation: Alphabet (GOOGL) posted a 26% EPS beat and its first-ever $100 billion revenue quarter, signaling strong AI-driven monetization across search, cloud, and YouTube and boosting demand for cloud CapEx and chips (NVDA, AVGO).
  • Meta (META) reported revenue and adjusted earnings beats but took a one-time $15.9B non-cash tax/deferred-asset charge that inflated its tax rate to ~87%, materially reducing reported net income while management reiterated aggressive AI and CapEx plans for 2026.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) beat EPS and showed cloud strength (Intelligent Cloud growth), but market reaction was negative as investors rotated money to the larger Google beat, highlighting investor focus on AI-driven upside differentiation.
  • Big-tech CapEx outlooks are rising: Meta raised 2025 CapEx guidance ($70–72B) and flagged even higher 2026 growth; Alphabet and others signaled expanded TPU/GPU buildouts, supporting data-center, networking, and semiconductor demand.
  • Consumer anecdote: Chipotle noted reduced foot traffic among sub-$100K consumers, suggesting bifurcation in consumer spending that could pressure lower-end discretionary restaurant sales and influence consumer-sensitive equities.
Bullish
  • Alphabet delivered a massive beat and its first $100B quarter, driving huge after-hours inflows.
  • Cloud and AI demand support continued CapEx — bullish for data-center and chip suppliers.
  • NVIDIA and related data-center suppliers benefit from accelerated AI infrastructure spending.
  • YouTube and ad product improvements (DemandGen, AIMAX) showing monetization upside.
Bearish
  • Meta took a $15.9B one-time tax/deferred-asset charge, crushing EPS and spooking the market.
  • Microsoft beat EPS but underwhelmed relative to Google's blowout, causing post-earnings selloff.
  • Payments names hit by Fiserv weakness dragging PayPal; financial-services-related downside risk.
  • Consumer sensitivity signaled by Chipotle foot-traffic weakness, a warning for discretionary spenders.
Sam Badawi

Google, Meta, and Microsoft Earning | FOMC Rug?

10/29/2025, 7:26:40 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Google (GOOGL) together report nearly $700 billion in backlog, primarily from customer cloud commitments; this backlog gives multi-quarter revenue visibility and investors will watch RPO, guidance, and cloud operating margins for confirmation.
  • An Azure disruption noted during the stream underscores cloud reliability risk that could affect MSFT near-term results; NVIDIA (NVDA) showed intraday volatility (up 5% then down 3%), reflecting sensitive market reactions to tech/cloud developments.
Bullish
  • Nearly $700B combined cloud backlog for MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL implies strong revenue visibility from customer cloud commitments.
  • Growth in RPO and expanding cloud operating margins would materially boost future earnings for the major cloud providers.
Bearish
  • Azure outages signal cloud reliability risks that could hurt Microsoft revenue and reputation.
  • If MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL fail to grow RPO or miss guidance, cloud growth expectations could disappoint.
  • Intraday reversal in NVIDIA (up 5% then down 3%) shows volatile sentiment and downside risk.
Sam Badawi

Amazon is CHEAP, Buying the DIP | The Bull Case

10/27/2025, 10:23:17 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Overspending on Datacenters? NBIS CRWV IREN DD

10/22/2025, 1:04:05 AM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • The AI/accelerated-computing wave (GPU/accelerated workloads led by NVDA demand) began after ChatGPT and has driven exponential, multi-year demand for data-center capacity, specialized co-location, and accelerated hardware; buildouts will take years, sustaining strong CapEx cycles for hyperscalers and partners.
  • Hyperscalers (e.g., MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL) continue very large CapEx but also generate strong free cash flow—examples cited: Microsoft >$64B CapEx and ~$72B FCF, Alphabet ~$67B FCF, Meta ~$50B FCF—supporting continued infrastructure investment and long-term demand for third-party capacity providers.
  • Smaller specialized providers (NEBBIUS, COREWEAVE, IREN) are signing multi-year contracts with hyperscalers and repurposing existing assets, creating steep revenue S-curves; however, those contracts and capacity ramp timelines mean revenue recognition and profitability will be multi-year and variable by geography.
Bullish
  • Hyperscalers' AI demand forces outsourcing to specialized data-center builders, driving multi-year revenue S-curves.
  • Microsoft's $17.4B contract validates Nebbius' model and long-term revenue visibility.
  • Amazon's AWS, advertising, and robotics growth generate strong cash flows, supporting continued CapEx and demand.
Bearish
  • High valuations and rapid share-price runs create significant downside risk and volatility for small data-center names.
  • Triple-digit revenue growth rates (e.g., IREN) are likely unsustainable as the business matures.
  • Buildouts take years; supply could catch up with demand, compressing margins and growth expectations.
Sam Badawi

What does Trump’s China Thread MEAN? | Datacenter STRONG

10/11/2025, 4:06:25 AM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • A single Trump tweet claiming cancellation of his meeting with Xi injected significant uncertainty into markets, driving a broad risk-off move and pushing volatility higher; this could either be posturing or the start of an escalation, which matters for China-exposed equities (e.g., BABA, GRAB).
  • China and the U.S. appear to be engaging in bargaining and tit-for-tat measures — e.g., Chinese rare-earths actions mirroring U.S. semiconductor export controls — which creates cyclical geopolitical risk for semiconductors and China tech, while also accelerating China's push for self-sufficiency.
  • Despite the pullback, structural demand for AI and data-center capacity (cited example: OpenAI $25B Argentina project) provides a strong tailwind for data-center-related stocks and chipmakers, potentially insulating them from short-term headline volatility.
Bullish
  • Data-center and AI-related names remain strong due to large secular tailwinds (e.g., NVDA).
  • If the China/US tensions are posturing and earnings are strong, sentiment could quickly recover.
  • Some miners and crypto plays still show pockets of green and can outperform in a rotation.
Bearish
  • Trump's tweet about cancelling meeting with Xi injected immediate uncertainty, prompting broad sell-offs, especially in China-exposed tech.
  • Breaking below the 20-day moving averages on major indices suggests a potential short-term trend reversal and more downside.
  • Frothy, high-beta names are vulnerable to rapid de-risking during geopolitical headlines and could see sharp draws.
Sam Badawi

What in the World is a Datacenter Crunch? | $MSFT

10/9/2025, 10:14:35 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Intraday action showed a tech-weight divergence: SPY pulled back ~29 basis points midday while Qs (QQQ) only pulled back ~12 bps, indicating tech dominance in the move and weaker breadth seen in equal-weight RSP.
  • Reports of a Microsoft 'data center crunch' mean demand is outstripping supply for servers, GPUs, ASICs, and networking gear; this suggests stronger near-term ordering for hardware vendors (DELL, SMCI, HPQ) and chipmakers (NVDA, AMD, MRVL, AVGO).
  • 314 Research's GPU-availability chart indicates AI compute instances are getting scarce (lower availability = higher demand), implying sustained demand pressure on GPU suppliers and cloud providers (MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN) and potential pricing/fulfillment dynamics.
  • Technical/market internals: Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) bounced off their moving averages and closed above key EMAs, while several names dipped then recovered intraday; MercadoLibre (MELI) and Robinhood (HOOD) showed relative strength toward the close.
Bullish
  • MSFT data-center demand implies durable hardware spending.
  • AMZN closed above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, a bullish technical signal.
  • GPU scarcity supports price power for suppliers like NVDA and AMD.
Bearish
  • RSP (equal-weight S&P) drifted down, signaling breadth weakness despite headline indexes.
  • Microsoft initially sold off >2% on the data-center headline, showing headline sensitivity.
  • GPU and server supply constraints could limit near-term fulfillment and slow revenue recognition.
Sam Badawi

Is AI a Bubble? | IWTB 26

10/9/2025, 9:55:42 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • AI compute demand is running well ahead of supply, evidenced by Amazon raising GPU hourly pricing after NVIDIA’s Blackwell launch, implying utilization is maxed and margins for AI compute providers could expand (companies referenced: AMZN, NVDA).
  • Data-center and AI utility companies (CoreWeave, Cypher, Galaxy, Iron) are being re-rated as GPU hours become a commoditized utility, which benefits providers selling power, cooling, and GPU time without building AI models themselves.
  • Many AI/data-center stocks are far above their 200-day moving averages, creating overextension risk; a meaningful pullback or consolidation could follow despite strong demand.
  • Software and application-layer winners (Snowflake, MongoDB) may see delayed growth because physical AI infrastructure constraints limit customers' ability to deploy large-scale models, pushing software tails to later years.
  • Macro backdrop is mixed: markets near all-time highs and Fed rate cuts priced in could support a melt-up, but housing affordability, K-shaped recovery dynamics, and income inequality leave parts of the economy fragile.
Bullish
  • AI compute demand is exploding, making GPU hours a monetizable utility.
  • Hyperscaler capacity constraints and AWS/Azure/Google shortages should re-rate AI utility providers.
  • Small caps and bios showing strong rallies; short squeezes and rotations can drive further upside.
Bearish
  • Many AI/data-center names are extremely overbought and could see a 20%+ pullback.
  • Oracle is trading at rich multiples with high debt, risk if revenue/margin expansion disappoints.
  • Software adoption (Snowflake, MongoDB) may be delayed while physical AI infrastructure bottlenecks persist.
  • K-shaped economy and high housing rates create macro fragility despite market highs.
Sam Badawi

A MARKET OPEN | Show Must Go On

10/9/2025, 2:14:50 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Federal Reserve hosted a community bank conference with remarks framed as low-drama; Fed committed to tailoring supervision for community banks to reduce burdens while keeping safety and soundness.
  • AI and data infrastructure demand remains strong: ClickHouse (usage-based data platform) announced IPO plans and counts Tesla, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta among customers, indicating robust consumption-driven revenue growth and raising valuations in private markets.
  • China purchased roughly $49 billion of chip-making equipment despite U.S. export controls, implying continued reliance on advanced compute supply chains and potential upside to semiconductor demand and vendor revenues (possible positive for NVDA, AMD).
  • Semiconductor ecosystem strength is visible in memory and component names (Micron and other suppliers at or near highs), supporting the view that chip-related capex and cloud/AI deployments remain elevated.
Bullish
  • AI demand accelerating benefits chipmakers and cloud providers (NVDA, AMD, MSFT).
  • ClickHouse IPO could unlock significant value for Nebius (28% stake).
  • Semiconductor suppliers and memory companies (e.g., MU) hitting highs, signaling strong industry demand.
  • CleanSpark has Bitcoin-mining upside and optionality to pivot toward AI/cloud infrastructure.
Bearish
  • SEC probe into AppLovin's advertising practices could pressure the stock and slow momentum.
  • Tesla vehicle traffic-probe may create short-term headwinds for TSLA.
  • Short reports on high-beta names (e.g., MSTR/BMNR targets) can create volatility and downside.
Sam Badawi

The BIGGEST Beneficiaries from AMD & OpenAI | It’s Not Who You Think

10/7/2025, 5:39:32 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • OpenAI is taking a strategic stake in AMD and committing to build six gigawatts of data‑center capacity using AMD chips, implying sizable secular demand for AMD server GPUs and ecosystem players (AMD).
  • The AI CapEx cycle remains robust: hyperscalers are financing expansion out of free cash flow rather than debt, driving long-tailed multi‑year spending across regions (benefits companies like SMCI, NVDA, AMD, ORCL, MSFT).
  • Regional and third‑party data‑center developers (the speaker’s IRON example, CoreWeave comparators) are securing grid‑connected power and financing, unlocking multi‑gigawatt campuses that can be repurposed from Bitcoin mining to AI compute.
  • Market caution: some specialist builders (SMCI) cut hardware margins to win share and are shifting toward higher‑margin service contracts, suggesting margin recovery is key to justify current valuations.
Bullish
  • OpenAI’s stake and multi-gigawatt commit materially boost AMD demand for data-center GPUs.
  • Hyperscalers continue to reinvest free cash flow into AI CapEx, supporting long-term demand.
  • SMCI shifting to services and rack supply should drive revenue and margin recovery.
  • Miners and operators converting capacity to GPU/data centers provide optionality and fast growth.
Bearish
  • Valuations for IRON appear wildly stretched with P/S around 31, risking a sharp multiple contraction.
  • Complex cross-ownership/round-tripping (OpenAI stakes + chipmakers) creates conflict-of-interest and market fragility.
  • SMCI experienced margin compression and past accounting noise, leaving downside if growth disappoints.
  • AI CapEx could hit a peak later, creating bubble risk for highly priced AI infrastructure names.
Sam Badawi

This CYBERSECURITY Stock Is MISUNDERSTOOD | Neoclouds & Miners

10/4/2025, 9:16:59 AM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Hyperscaler capex is accelerating instead of slowing: large cloud providers are signing multi-billion-dollar contracts (Microsoft noted) which fuels demand for data centers and chips (e.g., NVDA, MU, ASML).
  • IT/vendor budgeting often includes a year-end spend flush: companies commit unused budgets before year-end, which can create seasonal acceleration for cloud providers and enterprise software (benefiting AMZN/AWS and software vendors).
  • Regulatory/tax changes (example: new gambling tax deductibility rules starting 2026) can materially affect industry economics and consumer-facing platforms like DraftKings (DKNG).
Bullish
  • Hyperscaler spending and AI inference needs are accelerating, driving sustained data center buildouts.
  • Rubrik is growing ~51% with Microsoft backing and positive free cash flow guidance.
  • AWS year-end budgeting flush could accelerate cloud spend and re-accelerate AMZN/AWS growth.
  • DraftKings could benefit if international competitors are restricted, expanding domestic market share.
Bearish
  • Skeptics argue data center demand may be overhyped because ROI on huge capex could be poor.
  • AWS growth deceleration (from ~19–20% to ~17%) is used to argue Amazon's near-term weakness.
  • High valuations in cybersecurity (e.g., CrowdStrike) and some SaaS names already price in growth.
  • DraftKings could be hurt by tax code changes limiting loss deductibility, creating phantom taxable income.
Sam Badawi

Here is WHY Pharma Stocks RIPPED Today | LLY NVO PFE

10/2/2025, 6:34:32 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Historical data shows U.S. government shutdowns are usually short (average ~8 days) and on average produce flat-to-modest positive market returns afterward, implying markets largely ignore recurring shutdown 'theater'.
  • Drug-pricing policy and PBM reform are key near-term economic drivers for healthcare: proposed transparency/onshoring and cutting PBM middlemen could lift domestically-made pharma names (Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Novo Nordisk) while pressuring PBM-heavy insurers (Cigna, CVS).
  • Insurance sector economics depend on mix between insurance and non-insurance (PBM/services) revenue; companies with heavy PBM exposure face greater downside if PBM economics change (Cigna, CVS), whereas more insurance-weighted firms (UnitedHealth/Elevance) show different sensitivities.
  • Data-center and AI compute demand is accelerating capital spending across hyperscalers and specialist providers; high CapEx players (e.g., Nebius) may require significant funding rounds and dilution, while lower-cost renewable-energy operators (IREN) and GPU-focused providers (CoreWeave, CleanSpark) stand to benefit from GPU scale-up.
Bullish
  • Government shutdowns are historically short-lived and generally not bearish for stocks.
  • Onshoring drug production and deals with the administration boost Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Novo Nordisk.
  • PBM changes could benefit insurers with less PBM exposure or different revenue mix (Elevance, Centene, Molina).
  • Data-center and GPU demand (NVIDIA/hyperscalers) supports companies building capacity (CoreWeave, IREN, CleanSpark).
Bearish
  • PBM reform could sharply reduce revenues/margins for PBM-heavy firms like Cigna and CVS.
  • Nebius is unprofitable, capital-intensive, and likely to dilute shareholders through large fundraising.
  • CoreWeave has client-concentration risk (Microsoft/OpenAI) that could create volatility if contracts change.
Sam Badawi

This ETF Caught the WHOLE MOVE on TSLA & IONQ 2x

9/20/2025, 5:28:56 AM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Companies are massively investing in AI infrastructure (data centers, semiconductors, power/cooling), implying sustained capex that benefits suppliers like GE Vernova, Vertiv, SK Hynix, and Micron (MU).
  • Retail investor flows and momentum (double‑levered ETF inflows) are driving concentrated rallies in names such as Tesla (TSLA) and IonQ (IONQ), enabling products like WILD to systematically capture rapid moves.
  • There is a global arms race in AI spending; major platforms (Microsoft, Google, Meta) are overinvesting in infrastructure to avoid falling behind, creating multi‑year demand for cloud, chip, and power solutions.
Bullish
  • Massive data‑center and semiconductor capex drives demand for picks‑and‑shovels companies in AI supply chain.
  • Systematic ETFs (e.g., WILD) can capture retail flow momentum across top high‑beta names.
  • Income overlays on portfolios of Buffett/Ackman holdings attract investor capital seeking steady monthly yield.
Bearish
  • Winners in AI are uncertain; OpenAI profitability and ultimate market winners remain unclear.
  • Double‑levered single‑stock exposures are highly volatile and can suffer large losses on timing errors.
  • Concentrated mega‑cap exposure (via S&P/Nasdaq) leaves investors vulnerable if sentiment abruptly shifts.
Sam Badawi

How a Pro Manages Risk in Market Chaos | YieldMax Strategist & CNBC Fast Money Host Michael Khouw

9/19/2025, 8:09:18 AM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • The Great Financial Crisis began as a credit-market collapse in 2007 tied to securitized mortgage products and aggressive lending, culminating with Lehman Brothers in 2008; credit problems tend to precipitate large systemic market events.
  • Modern markets are dominated by algorithmic trading (well over 90% of volume), which increases the speed and severity of flash events but also changes market microstructure compared with prior crises.
  • Large, asset-light technology firms (e.g., NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, META) display unusually high net margins and rapid revenue growth, meaning index performance increasingly depends on a handful of high-profit secular growers.
  • When volatility (VIX) spikes and policymakers respond with aggressive fiscal and monetary support, those moments have historically marked attractive buying points for equities as interventions compress risk premia.
  • Policy uncertainty—such as abrupt tariff announcements—can produce outsized, case-by-case impacts on company valuations and investor behavior, increasing short-term market dislocation risk.
  • Commodities reflect strict supply/demand realities; the 2020 WTI negative-price event demonstrated delivery and logistics constraints can drive extreme price moves unrelated to broad equity fundamentals.
Bullish
  • NVIDIA-level secular winners with outsized margins and growth can sustainably lead market gains.
  • High VIX combined with aggressive fiscal and monetary intervention historically marks strong buying opportunities.
  • Broad participation (most S&P constituents rising) signals a healthy, risk-on market expansion.
Bearish
  • Tariff and trade-policy uncertainty (e.g., Trump-era announcements) can sharply disrupt global corporate sales and valuations.
  • A blow-off top characterized by gap-to-new-high then sharp intra-day reversal could signal a major peak.
  • Rising volatility even as prices increase is a warning sign that momentum may fail and drawdowns could accelerate.
  • Credit crises (like 2007–2008) can cascade through markets and liquidity, producing severe systemic damage.
Sam Badawi

FOMC Rate Decision, UNH Recovery, Our Strategy | HE 39

9/18/2025, 6:17:15 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Nebius ATH, Duolingo FUD, Oracle and Rubrik Earnings Release

9/12/2025, 12:48:23 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

NEBIUS $17.4B MICROSOFT DEAL | Emergency Meeting

9/9/2025, 8:33:03 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

S&P 500 Rebalance | $APP $HOOD LIVE

9/5/2025, 9:52:31 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

THE PAIN TRADE IS UP | HIDDEN EDGE

6/25/2025, 6:38:38 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

FOMC, GitLab, Lemonade, and Reddit | Live with Amit

6/19/2025, 9:46:46 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

WAR, BUT FIRST OSCAR HEALTH DD | HIDDEN EDGE

6/18/2025, 9:39:45 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

S&P 500 REBALANCE | RAPID FIRE DD

6/6/2025, 8:51:07 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

MARKETS CONTINUE TO MELT UP, HOUSING DETERIORATING?

6/4/2025, 6:50:34 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

JOLTS JOBS SURPRISES, NAVITAS, RISK ON | MARKET UPDATE

6/3/2025, 5:38:56 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

ALL THINGS SPACE STOCKS | LIVE WITH COUCH INVESTOR

5/28/2025, 8:14:02 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

SNOW Earnings Live | Amit’s Market Close

5/21/2025, 10:32:43 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Sell This Pen: The Nebius Pitch (Sub 40s)

5/21/2025, 1:35:00 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

NBIS Earnings Preview and Melt Up Mode

5/20/2025, 6:10:04 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Patreon: Market Update 5/8

5/17/2025, 1:01:36 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

NEBIUS DEEP DIVE | The Pitch to Amit

5/15/2025, 9:36:45 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

MAX TARIFFS, MAX FEAR

4/5/2025, 6:25:47 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

LIVE WITH DAN IVES

4/4/2025, 10:08:59 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Launching Cell Phone Towers into Space ASTS

3/26/2025, 1:49:22 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

The Fed is NOT Going to Save You

3/19/2025, 2:36:06 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Rubrik +26% after earnings!

3/15/2025, 4:28:36 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Is Trump Crashing the Market On Purpose?

3/14/2025, 2:56:27 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Cybersecurity Leader Crowdstrike Targets a 250B Market

3/9/2025, 6:13:30 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

$CRWD 115% Growth in SIEM

3/8/2025, 6:18:38 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

CrowdStrike: Is the Growth Story Cracking?

3/7/2025, 9:41:33 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

KC Live and Q&A 02 | 02-25-2025

3/6/2025, 10:35:55 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Trump 2.0 Tariff War | HE 26 [Patreon Exclusive]

3/6/2025, 10:35:06 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Is Ex-US Taking the Gains? | HE 27 [Patreon Exclusive]

3/6/2025, 10:34:47 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Markets Bottom on Recession Fears

3/5/2025, 7:10:49 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

ARE WE HEADED FOR A CORRECTION?

2/28/2025, 3:56:31 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

LIVE GRAB Earnings | Hidden Edge Live on Amit's Market Close

2/20/2025, 9:43:47 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

GRAB Earnings Predictions | HE Deep Dive 6 (Part 2)

2/19/2025, 1:09:23 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

The Rise of GRAB Part 1 | HE Deep Dive 06

2/18/2025, 2:37:36 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

LIVE Amazon Cloudflare Earnings | Collab with Amit's Market Close

2/7/2025, 12:28:09 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

The Bull Case for NuBank | Hidden Edge Live on FutureInvesting

2/6/2025, 8:05:23 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Pullback, Thats All You Got? | HE 25

1/23/2025, 3:08:28 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

LATAM Macro Impact to NuBank and MercadoLibre | HE Deep Dive 5

1/7/2025, 11:42:42 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

New Crew in the White House 2025 | HE 23

1/6/2025, 11:56:48 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Is This Latam Fintech the Best Setup for 2025 | HE Deep Dive 4

1/4/2025, 4:45:25 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

Live on Amits Market Close MELI NU

12/21/2024, 9:59:13 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Sam Badawi

China Stimulus Against Tariffs, Hyperscaler Silicon | HE 21

12/10/2024, 3:56:09 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.