Sam Badawi
ALL THINGS SPACE STOCKS | LIVE WITH COUCH INVESTOR
5/28/2025, 8:14:02 AM
Economic Summary
- Markets rotated back to risk-on, with equities rallying broadly while gold fell and bonds rose, signaling renewed investor appetite for growth and speculative names (helped space and high-beta stocks).
- Launch economics are improving dramatically—participants discussed steep declines in cost per kilogram to orbit—supporting a long-term thesis that building telecom infrastructure in LEO becomes economically viable (benefits RKLB, ASTS, STARLINK).
- Large pools of sidelined capital remain (commentary referenced ~$7 trillion), implying potential future inflows that can fuel further rallies, especially into U.S. equities and high-growth sectors like cloud and space.
- Capital has been flowing back into U.S. equities versus more speculative international markets; China ADRs and ETFs (e.g., impacting BABA) are facing outflows despite company-level fundamentals in cloud and e-commerce.
Bullish
- Rapidly falling launch costs and exponentially increasing launch cadence expand addressable market for space infrastructure.
- ASTS partnerships with major MNOs (Verizon, AT&T, Rakuten, Vodafone) validate commercial potential for direct-to-cellular services.
- Rocket Lab's diversified revenues (launches, software, space applications) reduce single-point operational risk.
- Indirect exposure to SpaceX/Starlink via TSLA/GOOGL offers retail investors upside tied to mature private assets.
Bearish
- ASTS is pre-revenue and priced for optimistic projections, so a failure to meet targets could cause large drawdowns.
- Space and related names are hype-driven; stocks can revert sharply when market risk appetite falls.
- Direct-to-cellular services (Starlink/T-Mobile) need clear-sky line-of-sight, limiting real-world utility in many environments.
- Rocket Lab could retreat materially if launch cadence or Neutron rollout disappoints (single-digit downside possible).
Bullish tickers
ASTSRKLBTSLAGOOGLUBER
Bearish tickers
ASTSRKLBSTARLINKBABA
TSLA
Bullish
Provides retail proxy exposure to SpaceX/Starlink upside and benefits from revival in risk appetite.
Bearish
Tesla is a proxy for SpaceX exposure but remains volatile; broader market pullbacks could pressure gains.
ASTS
Bullish
Strategic partnerships with major MNOs and investor interest could enable rapid scale if constellation deployment succeeds.
Bearish
Pre-revenue valuation relies on aggressive adoption and projections; missing milestones would trigger steep declines.
RKLB
Bullish
Diversified revenues across launches, software, and space services make Rocket Lab a less speculative way to play the space sector.
Bearish
Launch execution risk and dependence on future vehicles (Neutron) could lead to significant downside if delayed.
GOOGL
Bullish
Alphabet's venture investments and indirect exposure to space/Starlink-related assets underpin long-term optionality.
Bearish
Large-cap U.S. tech can be sold off during risk rotations despite solid fundamentals.
GTLB
Bullish
Holds strategic positions that can benefit from broader tech and cloud expansion.
Bearish
Exposure via venture investments may be indirect and subject to partner execution risk.
BABA
Bullish
Strong cloud and e-commerce franchises make Alibaba an attractive long-term contrarian pick when liquidity allows.
Bearish
Chinese ADRs remain sensitive to macro/ETF flows and geopolitical sentiment despite good company-level results.
UBER
Bullish
Solid cash flow generation and leadership in ride-sharing/delivery support continued outperformance if competition is controlled.
Bearish
Autonomy threats (Waymo, Tesla) pose long-term disruption risk to ride-hailing economics.
AMZN
Bullish
Core long-term position tied to cloud and commerce secular growth.
Bearish
High valuation periods make trimming reasonable if multiples re-rate.
CRWD
Bullish
Market leader in cloud-native security with durable growth runway.
Bearish
Mature, expensive cybersecurity names may warrant trimming on extended runs.
VZ
Bullish
As an MNO partner, Verizon validates satellite-to-cellular commercial use cases.
Bearish
Legacy telco constraints could slow opportunities in satellite partnerships.
T
Bullish
AT&T involvement supports industry adoption of LEO-based mobile services.
Bearish
Carrier execution or regulatory issues could hamper satellite partnership rollouts.
TMUS
Bullish
Partnerships with satellite providers can accelerate nationwide direct-to-cellular services.
Bearish
T-Mobile has had to catch up and may face integration/coverage challenges with new satellite features.
AMT
Bullish
Remains relevant for terrestrial coverage; satellite solutions likely complement rather than immediately replace towers.
Bearish
Traditional tower operators could face competition from satellite-based infrastructure long-term.
DASH
Bullish
Democratized delivery is a durable secular trend that DoorDash benefits from.
Bearish
Delivery economics can be pressured by competition and margin compression.
VOD
Bullish
Vodafone's role as an MNO partner signals commercial interest in satellite connectivity integrations.
Bearish
Regional regulatory and market dynamics in telecom can create volatility.
STARLINK
Bullish
Large private valuation and established deployments make Starlink a formidable competitor in satellite broadband and D2C cellular trials.
Bearish
Requires additional hardware for many mobility use-cases and currently needs line-of-sight; competition is intense.
People mentioned
SamElon MuskHoward MarksGeorge SorosPeter LynchAndreJose