Sam Badawi
FOMC, GitLab, Lemonade, and Reddit | Live with Amit
6/19/2025, 9:46:46 AM
Economic Summary
- Jerome Powell already spoke and reiterated he is "paying attention to the data," signalling a data-dependent Fed approach that keeps policy uncertainty elevated.
- Geopolitical tensions (Trump/Iran/Israel) matter primarily for energy markets; market impact will be concentrated via oil and supply concerns rather than immediate broad equity sell-offs.
- Quadruple witching this Friday could create unusual equity market moves as index and option expirations interact with market-maker flows.
- Long-term market-cap projections (2030) discussed are aggressive for many names (e.g., BABA, META, MSFT), implying significant growth or valuation expansion would be needed for those forecasts to materialize.
Bullish
- Reddit has strong technology and potential for sizeable upside.
- Lemonade (LMND) can scale and reduce costs via AI, moving toward profitability.
- Anet (ANET) could recover to prior highs given networking demand.
- Oracle (ORCL) showing hyperscaler strength supports further upside.
- GitLab (GTLB) benefits from secular DevOps/code storage trends.
Bearish
- Circle appears overheated and could retrace sharply — host defines a bubble as a 50% decline.
- Oklo (small modular reactor, OKLO) is pre-revenue and would likely fall hard if markets shock.
- Rivian (RIVN) is unprofitable and faces commoditization and cheaper EV competition.
- Momentum-chasing traders risk being left holding positions when sentiment reverses.
Bullish tickers
REDDITLMNDANETORCLGTLBHIMSAMD
Bearish tickers
CRCLOKLORIVN
CRCL
1 price targets
2.04
Bullish
Strong rallies and momentum attract retail buying; after-hours spikes noted.
Bearish
Described as potentially a bubble by the host; elevated volatility and sharp retracement risk.
OKLO
Bullish
Niche play in advanced reactors, theoretical long-term infrastructure upside.
Bearish
Pre-revenue modular reactor company; likely to fall in risk-off or extreme scenarios.
RIVN
Bullish
Secondary EV leader with potential if it differentiates on product or scale.
Bearish
Not profitable and faces cheaper EV competition; commoditization risk.
REDDIT
Bullish
Host says technology is strong and sees substantial upside potential (target comments imply $200 thesis).
Bearish
IPO/valuation risks and execution challenges if monetization misses expectations.
LMND
Bullish
AI-driven cost reductions and scalability could drive margin improvement and long-term growth.
Bearish
Not yet consistently profitable; remains speculative and in the speculative bucket.
ANET
1 price targets
130
Bullish
Viewed as highly bullish with potential to return to $130 and make new highs.
Bearish
Networking is cyclical; competition and cyclicality could limit upside.
ORCL
Bullish
Earnings strength and hyperscaler positioning provide a powerful tailwind for continued gains.
Bearish
Attracts heavy sell-side attention; stretched multiples could lead to volatility.
GTLB
Bullish
Secular DevOps/code storage theme positions it as a public play alongside GitHub demand.
Bearish
Valuation questioned versus revenue/earnings; downside if growth disappoints.
HIMS
1 price targets
20
Bullish
Breaking out technically; host notes potential quick move into the $20s.
Bearish
Speculative app-driven health play with sales/marketing risk.
BTC
1 price targets
150000
Bullish
Seen by the host as a hedge against government debt with potential to reach ~$150k.
Bearish
Crypto remains volatile and could retrace sharply in risk-off environments.
AMD
2 price targets
5560
Bullish
Appears to have found a base around $55–$60, suggesting stabilization for bulls.
Bearish
Cyclicality and competition could keep margins pressured.
People mentioned
Jerome PowellDonald TrumpEamon JaversSasan GaramaniSamDerekChrisMattTannerJasonBrettVladKarpAmitMorganGeorge SorosJeff BezosElon Musk