Sam Badawi
Google, Meta, and Microsoft Earnings
10/29/2025, 7:59:27 PM
Economic Summary
- Earnings season drove big intraday rotation: Alphabet (GOOGL) posted a 26% EPS beat and its first-ever $100 billion revenue quarter, signaling strong AI-driven monetization across search, cloud, and YouTube and boosting demand for cloud CapEx and chips (NVDA, AVGO).
- Meta (META) reported revenue and adjusted earnings beats but took a one-time $15.9B non-cash tax/deferred-asset charge that inflated its tax rate to ~87%, materially reducing reported net income while management reiterated aggressive AI and CapEx plans for 2026.
- Microsoft (MSFT) beat EPS and showed cloud strength (Intelligent Cloud growth), but market reaction was negative as investors rotated money to the larger Google beat, highlighting investor focus on AI-driven upside differentiation.
- Big-tech CapEx outlooks are rising: Meta raised 2025 CapEx guidance ($70–72B) and flagged even higher 2026 growth; Alphabet and others signaled expanded TPU/GPU buildouts, supporting data-center, networking, and semiconductor demand.
- Consumer anecdote: Chipotle noted reduced foot traffic among sub-$100K consumers, suggesting bifurcation in consumer spending that could pressure lower-end discretionary restaurant sales and influence consumer-sensitive equities.
Bullish
- Alphabet delivered a massive beat and its first $100B quarter, driving huge after-hours inflows.
- Cloud and AI demand support continued CapEx — bullish for data-center and chip suppliers.
- NVIDIA and related data-center suppliers benefit from accelerated AI infrastructure spending.
- YouTube and ad product improvements (DemandGen, AIMAX) showing monetization upside.
Bearish
- Meta took a $15.9B one-time tax/deferred-asset charge, crushing EPS and spooking the market.
- Microsoft beat EPS but underwhelmed relative to Google's blowout, causing post-earnings selloff.
- Payments names hit by Fiserv weakness dragging PayPal; financial-services-related downside risk.
- Consumer sensitivity signaled by Chipotle foot-traffic weakness, a warning for discretionary spenders.
Bullish tickers
GOOGLNVDAAVGOPLTRAAPLAMZNSMCI
Bearish tickers
METAMSFTPYPLFISVMELISBUXCMG
GOOGL
2 price targets
300295
Bullish
Massive beat, first $100B quarter, accelerating cloud/AI monetization and large subscriber growth.
Bearish
Stock volatility despite strong results as markets digest elevated CapEx and legal charges elsewhere.
MSFT
1 price targets
520
Bullish
Solid cloud growth, strong bookings/RPO, and significant enterprise demand tied to AI deployments.
Bearish
Shares sold off after hours despite an EPS beat, as investors sought Google-like upside.
META
1 price targets
706
Bullish
Strong ad revenue growth, AI product progress, Reality Labs and device momentum, plus heavy investment in compute.
Bearish
One-time $15.9B tax/deferred-asset charge crushed reported EPS and prompted heavy selling.
NVDA
1 price targets
207
Bullish
Direct beneficiary of AI/data-center CapEx with sustained demand for GPUs.
Bearish
High expectations already priced in; exposure to CapEx cycles could be volatile.
PLTR
1 price targets
198.83
Bullish
Reached all-time highs, benefits from enterprise data/AI spending narratives.
Bearish
Momentum-sensitive name; could face pullbacks with broad market rotation.
TSLA
1 price targets
461
Bullish
Large move noted; remains a key momentum name for investors.
Bearish
High valuation exposure to cyclical auto demand and sentiment swings.
AAPL
1 price targets
269
Bullish
Trading near all-time highs, benefits from services and hardware ecosystem strength.
Bearish
Limited near-term downside mentioned; reliant on product cadence and services growth.
AMZN
Bullish
Solid day with modest gains; diversified cloud and retail exposure supports growth.
Bearish
Modest after-hours move; sensitive to ad and retail macro conditions.
PYPL
Bullish
Still a leader in payments with long-term episodic growth opportunities.
Bearish
Felt pressure after Fiserv weakness; payments exposure sensitive to partner disruptions.
FISV
Bullish
If fundamentals recover, could stabilize payments ecosystem sentiment.
Bearish
Sharp post-earnings decline (~40%) that spilled into peers (e.g., PYPL).
CRM
Bullish
Enterprise software demand and bookings remain important long-term indicators.
Bearish
Modest pullback noted; software names are sensitive to guidance on bookings and CapEx.
SMCI
Bullish
Likely to benefit modestly from AI infrastructure spending.
Bearish
Smaller moves; sensitive to server/data-center demand cycles.
MELI
Bullish
Revenue beat points to underlying marketplace strength despite margin pressure.
Bearish
Reported mixed results (EPS miss, revenue beat) and traded down.
SBUX
Bullish
Large footprint and loyalty program remain durable long-term assets.
Bearish
Noted as down; exposed to consumer discretionary headwinds.
CMG
Bullish
Still a strong brand; one-quarter consumer softness may be temporary.
Bearish
Chipotle reported foot-traffic concerns and traded lower.
TDOC
Bullish
Continued relevance in virtual care market if utilization improves.
Bearish
No specific catalyst; telehealth names remain sensitive to utilization trends.
EBAY
Bullish
Potential benefit from e-commerce and ad-product improvements.
Bearish
Quiet after-hours; marketplace exposure sensitive to consumer spending.
AVGO
Bullish
Broadcom should benefit from increased TPU/GPU and data-center infrastructure spending.
Bearish
Dependent on semiconductor cycle and CapEx variability.
People mentioned
Sundar PichaiMark ZuckerbergSusanJoseSamBrian NowatEric SheridanMark ShmulikJustin PostRoss SandlerYusuf SqualiPhilipAnatJimKristaChadStephanie