Sam Badawi
GRAB Earnings Predictions | HE Deep Dive 6 (Part 2)
2/19/2025, 1:09:23 AM
Economic Summary
- Grab (GRAB) operates across eight Southeast Asian countries where smartphone penetration and GDP growth remain strong, providing a large TAM and long-term revenue opportunity.
- Analysts expect GRAB revenue of roughly $756–757M next quarter and EPS around -$0.01; last quarter GRAB reported ~ $716M and achieved GAAP profitability (~$11M EBITDA).
- Institutional buying was substantial: reported net institutional purchases near ~500M shares last quarter, including a new ~223M-share Toyota position and heavy purchases by BlackRock and Tiger Global, which reduces free float and may dampen volatility.
- A strong US dollar tightens liquidity and weighs on emerging-market equities; recent modest dollar pullback has coincided with rallies in Latin American names and provided a positive tailwind for GRAB and other EM exposures.
Bullish
- Large institutional accumulation (Toyota, BlackRock, Tiger Global) signaling conviction.
- Consistent revenue outperformance — beat revenue 8 of last 9 quarters.
- Weaker US dollar would boost local pricing power and revenue for emerging-market plays.
Bearish
- Risk of missing GAAP profitability next quarter (analysts expect ~-$0.01 EPS).
- Direct competition from GoTo in Indonesia could pressure market share.
- Strong US dollar historically hurts emerging-market companies like GRAB.
Bullish tickers
GRABTMBLKTIGER GLOBAL
Bearish tickers
GRABGOTO
GRAB
2 price targets
6.57.5
Bullish
Consistent revenue beats (8/9 quarters), recent GAAP profitability, and large institutional accumulation support a multi-year growth thesis.
Bearish
May slip back into unprofitable quarter (analysts project ~-$0.01 EPS) and could see a selloff despite recent profitability.
GOTO
Bullish
Rumored M&A interest could create strategic upside or consolidation benefits if a deal occurs.
Bearish
As an Indonesian rival, GOTO represents competitive pressure in Indonesia for Grab.
TM
Bullish
Toyota established a large new position (~223M shares), signaling institutional confidence in GRAB.
BLK
Bullish
BlackRock holds a sizable position, indicating long-term institutional support.
JPM
Bullish
JPM increased its stake, contributing to institutional accumulation narrative.
TIGER GLOBAL
Bullish
Consistent purchases over multiple quarters; meaningful long-term holder of GRAB stock.
PERPETUAL LIMITED
Bullish
Noted as a new institutional buyer of GRAB shares.
OUR STREET
Bullish
Listed as having purchased shares in recent filings (reported as 'Our Street' in transcript).
SOFI
Bullish
Used as an analog for sustaining profitability after initial GAAP profit.
Bearish
Example of stock selling off after an initial profitability quarter despite continued improvement.
AMZN
Bullish
Mentioned as an example of dominant incumbents that keep innovating despite competition.
GOOGL
Bullish
Referenced implicitly via YouTube/Google as a competitive example.
META
Bullish
Mentioned (Mark Zuckerberg) as an example of large-platform competition and innovation.
TSLA
Bullish
Referenced as a comparison in auto industry context alongside Toyota.
UBER
Bullish
Referenced as a partner/industry peer in ride-hailing and regional strategy.
SHOP
Bullish
Mentioned as an example of competitive pressure in e-commerce.
NU
Bullish
Latin American peer discussed in context of FX sensitivity and recent rallies.
MELI
Bullish
Cited as another Latin American company that rallied when the dollar weakened.
PLTR
Bullish
Referenced for institutional ownership comparison.
HOOD
Bullish
Mentioned (Robinhood) in discussion of retail/institutional dynamics.
People mentioned
Anthony NotoMark ZuckerbergElon MuskAndy Jassy