Sam Badawi
Launching Cell Phone Towers into Space ASTS
3/26/2025, 1:49:22 PM
Economic Summary
- Energy (XLE) has been outperforming tech year-to-date, implying sector rotation and benefits for diversified portfolios; this supports companies exposed to LNG and traditional energy exports.
- China is running a stimulative policy with low or negative inflation, enabling monetary easing and potential capital flows into Chinese equities (tracked via FXI/HSI), which could draw foreign investment away from the U.S. (SPY).
- The U.S. is in a tighter liquidity regime with quantitative tightening (balance sheet runoff and MBS sales), meaning money for equity gains must reallocate rather than come from fresh money printing, pressuring valuation expansion.
- Natural gas (LNG) is positioned as a near-term, scalable power source for data centers and as a geopolitical/export tool; U.S. exporters (e.g., NextDecade) may capture demand as countries diversify energy supplies.
- Traditional tower operators (Crown Castle CCI, American Tower AMT, SBA SBAC) face secular growth compression after carrier consolidation (Sprint/T‑Mobile) and higher refinancing costs, prompting asset sales and dividend adjustments.
Bullish
- ASTS contracts with major MNOs could unlock a large underserved market.
- U.S. natural gas exporters benefit from global LNG demand and data-center power needs.
- Poland and some international markets showing strong outperformance and capital inflows.
- Continued China stimulus and low/negative inflation could drive prolonged Chinese equity gains.
Bearish
- Tower REITs face slower growth after operator consolidation and rising refinancing costs.
- AST Space Mobile currently has no tangible revenue and is valued on long-term potential.
- Competition from Starlink/Kuiper and other launch providers could pressure ASTS adoption.
- Higher interest rates increase debt service and maturity-wall risk for capital-intensive tower firms.
Bullish tickers
ASTSNEXTVENTURE GLOBALRKLB
Bearish tickers
CCIAMTSBACASTS
ASTS
Bullish
Contracts with major MNOs and beta testing with AT&T position ASTS to serve underserved mobile users without special hardware.
Bearish
No meaningful revenue yet, high market valuation based on long-term adoption; faces competition and execution risk.
NEXT
Bullish
NextDecade has pre‑existing contracts and stands to benefit from growing global LNG demand and U.S. export push.
Bearish
Project execution and commodity price volatility pose timeline and cash-flow risks for LNG developers.
CCI
Bullish
Still a longstanding infrastructure business with recurring rental revenue, though growth is slowing.
Bearish
Growth compressed by carrier consolidation and higher refinancing costs; asset sales reduce future revenue runway.
AMT
Bullish
Large, diversified tower portfolio with historically stable cash flows and long-term contracts.
Bearish
Facing slower tower tenancy growth after mergers and higher interest expense on maturing debt.
SBAC
Bullish
Operates critical communications infrastructure with durable tenancy and multi-year contracts.
Bearish
Capital intensity and rising rates pressure margins and dividend sustainability amid slowing tower demand.
RKLB
Bullish
Rocket Lab and other launch providers can enable satellite deployment scale, benefiting satellite-related business models.
Bearish
Launch market competition and execution risk could slow growth expectations.
NVDA
Bullish
NVIDIA-linked demand for AI infrastructure underscores power and capacity constraints driving energy-related investments.
Bearish
Not deeply discussed as a company risk in transcript.
T
Bullish
Partnering in beta tests (AT&T) could expand coverage via space-based services.
Bearish
Potential incremental costs or integration issues when using satellite-based roaming services.
VZ
Bullish
Has partnerships/agreements that could benefit from satellite roaming services.
Bearish
Reliance on legacy tower economics may pressure long-term growth.
VOD
Bullish
As a major MNO, Vodafone partnerships could accelerate satellite-to-handset services in many regions.
Bearish
European regulatory or competitive pressures could affect rollout pace.
EPOL
Bullish
Poland-focused ETF outperformed many markets, presenting momentum and regional opportunity.
Bearish
Country-specific risks could reverse recent outperformance.
XLE
Bullish
Energy sector ETF has outperformed tech, reflecting strength in energy-related names and commodities.
Bearish
Not specified as a single-company risk.
FXI
Bullish
China reopening and stimulus could lift FXI-tracked equities as policy support continues.
Bearish
China market pullbacks can be volatile and tied to policy shifts.
SPY
Bullish
Broad U.S. market remains a central allocation but may be impacted by global flows.
Bearish
U.S. equities could face headwinds if foreign capital rotates into cheaper, stimulus-driven markets.
VENTURE GLOBAL
Bullish
Venture Global could capture LNG export demand and benefit from countries diversifying energy sources.
Bearish
Project and execution risk for large-scale LNG expansions; transcript used shorthand 'VG' but specifics uncertain.
People mentioned
SamChrisSam MercierJohnny MacElon MuskJeff BezosJoe RoganClayton BigsbyDonald TrumpMatt