Sam Badawi
LIVE Amazon Cloudflare Earnings | Collab with Amit's Market Close
2/7/2025, 12:28:09 AM
Economic Summary
- Amazon reported $187.8B revenue (+10% YoY) and $21.2B operating income, with AWS growth ~19%, highlighting cloud strength (AMZN, NVDA implications).
- Amazon cited a $700M FX headwind in the quarter and gave softer forward guidance, raising investment/CapEx sensitivity for suppliers like NVDA and AVGO.
- Affirm turned profitable with revenue beats and GMV > $10B, indicating resilient consumer finance activity and potential upside as rates normalize (AFRM).
- Market action showed concentrated flows into single stocks (notably PLTR) with large options trades and retail + institutional participation, amplifying volatility.
Bullish
- AWS grew ~19% with expanding operating income, underscoring Amazon's leadership in cloud and AI (AMZN).
- Affirm reported profitability, GMV topping $10B and doubled card volume, supporting a durable payments thesis (AFRM).
- Palantir is seeing heavy options activity, institutional flows, and mentions by big tech, suggesting sustained demand (PLTR).
- Cloudflare and other cybersecurity/cloud names showed strength on AI demand and enterprise wins (NET, FTNT).
Bearish
- ELF missed revenue and cut full-year guidance, signaling weak January trends and heavy discounting.
- Amazon guided softer than the street and faced FX headwinds, which pressured the mega-cap complex.
- Palantir is extremely extended after rapid re-ratings and could see a sharp pullback if momentum fades.
- Some mid- and small-caps with light guidance saw steep intraday sell-offs despite recent rallies.
Bullish tickers
PLTRAFRMAMZNNETNVDA
Bearish tickers
ELFAMZNPLTR
PLTR
3 price targets
110130160
Bullish
Heavy options/institutional flow, big-tech mentions, and AIP/AWS integrations are driving strong demand.
Bearish
Valuation looks stretched after multiple re-ratings; large downside risk if momentum reverses.
AMZN
Bullish
AWS 19% growth, improving operating margins, and accelerating efficiency/support for ecosystem suppliers.
Bearish
Softer forward guide and FX headwind pressured the stock despite solid Q4 results.
AFRM
1 price targets
61.75
Bullish
Reported profitability, strong revenue beat, GMV > $10B and rapid card adoption.
Bearish
Guidance for the next quarter was slightly light versus some expectations.
PINS
Bullish
Stock popped on a guide/comment that excited the street despite the EPS miss.
Bearish
Missed EPS and had unimpressive core metrics, creating execution risk.
ELF
Bullish
Previously enjoyed growth momentum, but current setup is challenged.
Bearish
Missed revenue and cut full-year guidance; weak January trends and heavy discounting.
NET
Bullish
Highlighting AI and enterprise success; beat expectations and saw positive flows.
Bearish
Faded after initial strength in some sessions.
NVDA
1 price targets
135
Bullish
Strong momentum and potentially larger gains if hyperscaler CapEx (e.g., Amazon) ramps.
Bearish
Pre-earnings swings and volatility could cause short-term pullbacks.
HOOD
1 price targets
53.2
Bullish
Investor video earnings and potential AI features could be a big user-growth catalyst.
Bearish
Modest intraday weakness and limited AI product rollout so far.
FTNT
Bullish
Reported a double beat and benefited from cybersecurity demand.
CLSK
Bullish
Miners and related names rallied alongside bitcoin strength.
Bearish
Operational metrics like hash rate can be confusing; investor sentiment swings.
MPWR
Bullish
Shares jumped after results; seen as beneficiary in power/analog markets.
EXPE
Bullish
Beat expectations and rallied on buyout rumors.
MRVL
Bullish
Viewed as a supplier to hyperscalers and benefitted from AWS-related strength.
People mentioned
AmitMarcusSarathPollyDragosKirkSteveDanVladKate RooneyMorganSamTannerMax LepchinAndy JassyBrian OlsofskyDave FilesMatthew PrinceJasonMikoMike CoeMackenzie SegalosGilScottMitch