Sam Badawi
LIVE GRAB Earnings | Hidden Edge Live on Amit's Market Close
2/20/2025, 9:43:47 AM
Economic Summary
- A proposed Trump administration Pentagon budget cut of roughly 8% over five years sparked market moves; this could reduce certain government spending but may not be material to all defense‑tech contractors (notably discussed for PLTR) and instead prompt reallocation toward effective software.
- Palantir-specific fundamentals: Alex Karp plans to sell roughly $1.2B in stock through 2025 (about 9M shares), increasing supply and pressuring the stock alongside already-extended multiples (~90x price/sales versus ~15x for typical software peers).
- Market tone: an intra-day risk-off rotation was observed with money moving toward perceived safety names (mega-caps and defense contractors like RTX/LMT were referenced), while speculative or extended names experienced sharper declines.
- Macro positioning: some strategists mentioned adding gold and long-duration Treasuries as hedges, anticipating a potential dollar peak and eventual Fed rate cuts, and recommending modest allocations to gold in diversified portfolios.
- Earnings season nuance: mixed post-market results — Toast beat revenue but slightly missed EPS, Novix/Inovix reported revenue growth (c.32%) but posted losses, and Carvana showed solid revenue and adjusted EBIT; such mixed prints are driving stock-specific volatility.
Bullish
- NVIDIA expected to post strong results and benefit from XAI demand.
- Microsoft innovation (quantum chip) supports longer-term growth narrative.
- Grab momentum and retail buying around earnings announcement.
- Toast beat revenue and saw positive after-hours reaction.
Bearish
- Palantir faces downward pressure from a proposed Pentagon budget cut and large insider stock sales.
- High valuation: Palantir trading at ~90x price-to-sales, making it vulnerable to sharp drawdowns.
- Risk-off rotation can punish smaller growth names and speculative tech (e.g., Rocket Lab).
Bullish tickers
NVDAMSFTGRABTOST
Bearish tickers
PLTRRKLBHOOD
PLTR
Bullish
If defense spending is reallocated to effective software, Palantir could remain a beneficiary; long-term narrative and recent strong gains argue for buying dips for some investors.
Bearish
Insider selling (~$1.2B from Alex Karp) plus sensitivity to potential Pentagon budget cuts and extremely high valuation (~90x P/S).
NVDA
Bullish
Market expects a blowout quarter driven by XAI/chip demand; seen as likely to continue strong compounding growth.
Bearish
Guidance or margin weakness could disappoint despite strong demand narrative.
MSFT
Bullish
New quantum chip and continued enterprise AI strength bolster a constructive long-term view.
Bearish
Execution or margin pressure on new initiatives could moderate near-term sentiment.
GRAB
Bullish
Retail enthusiasm and host purchases indicate short-term momentum into the earnings event.
Bearish
Earnings expectations may have been largely priced in, leaving risk of a sell-the-news reaction.
TOST
Bullish
Revenue beat drove after-hours strength, showing operational traction and positive post-report sentiment.
Bearish
EPS miss could be a concern if margins continue to be pressured.
RKLB
Bullish
No specific bullish case discussed in transcript.
Bearish
Shares fell amid the risk-off move; speculative exposure vulnerable to sentiment shifts.
HOOD
Bullish
Longer-term performance still strong year-to-date for some holders; no detailed bullish thesis given.
Bearish
Still showing downside in the risk-off environment and sensitive to retail flow.
SOFI
Bullish
No explicit bullish argument discussed in transcript.
Bearish
Mentioned among names that pulled back in the risk-off episode.
HIMS
Bullish
Holding up better than some peers after acquisition-related moves.
Bearish
Mixed intraday performance; listed among small-cap movers.
VMEO
Bullish
No explicit bullish argument discussed in transcript.
Bearish
Noted down ~4% after hours, reflecting earnings/volume sensitivity.
CAKE
Bullish
Ticker mentioned as 'Cheesecake' with some retail ownership in chat.
Bearish
No bearish thesis discussed; referenced in light conversational context.
CVNA
Bullish
Reported strong revenue (13.67B) and positive adjusted EBIT, which was constructive.
Bearish
After-hours volatility; earlier intraday gains faded.
SMCI
Bullish
Called out positively by a guest texting about gains.
Bearish
No bearish argument provided; referenced as a stock friends were happy about.
IMAX
Bullish
Reported $5M profit on $93M revenue; no strong bullish case discussed.
Bearish
Reported profit but shares were down ~7%, suggesting movie attendance concerns.
RTX
Bullish
Seen as a defensive/safer stock amid budget and risk-off headlines.
Bearish
Not specifically bearish in transcript; mentioned as a defense safety name in rotation.
LMT
Bullish
Discussed as a potential beneficiary of defense spend stability relative to smaller contractors.
Bearish
Not specifically bearish; included as a defense contractor that traders see as a safety play.
INOVIX
Bullish
Reported ~32% revenue growth in the print noted, though loss per share remains.
Bearish
Transcript references inconsistent naming (Inovix/Novix); shares showed post-market volatility.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpAlex KarpRyan DietrichSamKevinKellySteveChrisAmitJasonMarkAnthony