Sam Badawi
Live Q3 Earnings Review | Part 1 (Late Night)
10/30/2025, 3:49:39 AM
Economic Summary
- The market feels extended with very shallow pullbacks (often only ~2.5% from highs), making a faster correction likely; the speaker expects a possible quick ~10% drawdown and is positioning with cash and hedges.
- Technical levels matter: recovering the 200‑day moving average on SPY was a bullish confirmation; conversely Bitcoin and Ethereum nearing/breaking their 200‑day moving averages pose downside risk for crypto‑linked assets (e.g., BMNR, COIN, MSTR).
- Earnings season is a major near‑term catalyst with many names reporting (Amazon AMZN, Cloudflare, Reddit, Apple AAPL, Coinbase COIN, Atlassian TEAM, Workday WDAY), and AI narrative may lift software plays while others remain vulnerable.
- Illiquid options markets make hedging difficult for some positions, prompting defensive strategies like selling call spreads and reducing concentrated high‑beta allocations.
Bullish
- Amazon as a long‑term hold unlikely to be permanently impaired by short pullbacks.
- Atlassian could rally post‑earnings due to AI interest hitting its product.
- Profitable Bitcoin miners with infrastructure (Iron, Cipher) may prove resilient.
Bearish
- High‑beta growth names will fall sharply if the broader market corrects or goes risk‑off.
- Crypto‑correlated stocks (e.g., BMNR) can plunge if Ethereum or Bitcoin break their 200‑day moving averages.
- Many speculative companies lack durable fundamentals and could decline 50–90% in a downturn.
- Options are illiquid for some positions, making hedging costly or impractical during stress.
Bullish tickers
AMZNAAPLMETATEAMCIFRCLSKRUBRICNEBULOUS
Bearish tickers
BMNRIRENTTDHOOD
AMZN
Bullish
Considered a solid long‑term holding; speaker comfortable holding through volatility.
Bearish
Still vulnerable to near‑term market corrections but viewed as unlikely to crash in an apocalypse scenario.
AAPL
Bullish
Included on the list of names the speaker is comfortable holding long term.
Bearish
Could be pressured in broad market selloffs like other large caps.
META
Bullish
Could present buying opportunities when technicals stabilize; the speaker watches its 200‑day test closely.
Bearish
May drop toward its 200‑day moving average and underperform on earnings surprises.
COIN
Bullish
Could move significantly on earnings, but is crypto‑dependent.
Bearish
Correlates to crypto; likely to fall if Bitcoin weakens around the 200‑day MA.
MSTR
Bullish
May rally with Bitcoin but is highly correlated and volatile.
Bearish
Tracks Bitcoin and therefore vulnerable to crypto selloffs.
TEAM
Bullish
Speaker sees Atlassian as an AI target and potential post‑earnings rally.
Bearish
At risk if AI disrupts its perceived software moat or if earnings disappoint.
WDAY
Bullish
Remains on the speaker's earning‑season watchlist but faces similar AI risks.
Bearish
Could see valuation pressure if AI impacts software moats similarly to Atlassian.
LUMN
Bullish
Mentioned as an interesting earnings print to watch; no strong long thesis given.
Bearish
Subject to operational and earnings volatility that could be punished on downside days.
CLSK
Bullish
Speaker has been in and out; could size up when Bitcoin recovers.
Bearish
Crypto correlation makes it vulnerable when Bitcoin corrects.
CIFR
Bullish
Viewed positively for having deals (e.g., with Google) and infrastructure expansion.
Bearish
Still correlated to crypto cycles despite operational deals; could fall in risk‑off.
BMNR
Bullish
Shorter‑term swing trade potential, but speaker is not comfortable holding through a big drawdown.
Bearish
Trades at high beta to Ethereum; a drop in ETH could cause outsized declines.
IREN
Bullish
Speaker added into weakness earlier but would not add more at larger sizes.
Bearish
Position sized small (2.5%); volatile and would decline in a market pullback.
TTD
Bullish
Speaker believes the company can be fine operationally but valuation will be pressured.
Bearish
Risk of post‑earnings weakness; needs to turn around fundamentals to command higher valuation.
HOOD
Bullish
Seen as having had an excellent buy opportunity when it tested the 200‑day moving average.
Bearish
Experienced textbook bounce to its 200‑day MA earlier; still sensitive to market sentiment.
RUBRIC
Bullish
One of the names the speaker is comfortable holding through volatility.
Bearish
High‑growth exposure; would fall in a market drawdown.
NEBULOUS
Bullish
Speaker held and added into dips; has partnerships and growth narrative but kept position sizing cautious.
Bearish
Highly correlated to market moves; would drop if broad risk appetite falls.
IRON
Bullish
Noted for rapid expansion and owning infrastructure across the stack; seen as a standout miner.
Bearish
Mining companies remain cyclically exposed and can fall sharply with crypto.
People mentioned
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