Sam Badawi
MAX TARIFFS, MAX FEAR
4/5/2025, 6:25:47 PM
Economic Summary
- Tariffs on multiple countries effective April 9
- Federal Reserve holding rates firm amid sticky inflation
- Interest payments now near 3% of GDP
- Aging population and AI may drive deflationary trends
- US consumer strength reduces short-term recession risk
- OPEC increasing supply lowers commodity prices
- High corporate uncertainty impacting guidance
- Bond market signals risk aversion via widening spreads
Bullish
- Lower oil prices reduce transportation costs
- Consumer spending remains strong despite trade war
- Private credit could offset government cuts
- Tariffs may push yields down aiding refinancing
- Certain sectors like cruise lines benefit from fuel cost drop
- Historical data shows strong long-term returns after high VIX spikes
- Drawdowns present buying opportunities for disciplined investors
- VG offers long-term growth potential similar to Chenier
Bearish
- High tariffs risk hurting global trade and corporate guidance
- Rising interest payments threaten fiscal stability
- Oil price weakness pressures US producers
- Potential retaliatory tariffs on digital services hurt MAG-7
- Corporate earnings may weaken with economic slowdown
- Global recession risk if US consumer weakens
- Elevated volatility increases market downside risk
- Analysts downgrading market forecasts
- High beta stocks face disproportionate declines
Bullish tickers
VGGOOGLRCLIBM
Bearish tickers
AMDTDDSHOPDISNUBKKRE
People mentioned
Donald TrumpJerome PowellPaul VolckerBen BernankeElon MuskCharlie BiledoEd YardeniDan Ives