Sam Badawi
NBIS Earnings Preview and Melt Up Mode
5/20/2025, 6:10:04 PM
Economic Summary
- Rental vacancy rates rising above pre-pandemic levels
- Potential impact from reduced immigration and deportations
- Home listings increasing while buyer demand weak
- Mortgage rates around 7% hurting affordability
- Spring home price cuts uncommon in normal seasonal cycles
- Possible deflation if rent declines persist and feed into PCE
Bullish
- Expectation of Fed and White House intervention to support markets
- Falling rents could lower inflation and lead to rate cuts
- Nubank growing customers rapidly, reaching 120 million
- Cost to serve Nubank customers decreasing, boosting profitability
- Nubank expanding in Mexico and Colombia despite short-term costs
Bearish
- Rents dropping sharply in multiple cities could signal housing market weakness
- High mortgage rates make home affordability worst in decades
- Multifamily CMBS loans resetting at higher rates could cause distress
- Net interest margin at Nubank declined, hurting core profitability
- Gross margins fell due to credit loss allowances and seasonality
Bullish tickers
NUGOOGLTLT
Bearish tickers
NUTLT
People mentioned
Jerome PowellDave VelezSundar PichaiSafra KatzLarry Ellison