Sam Badawi
Nebius ATH, Duolingo FUD, Oracle and Rubrik Earnings Release
9/12/2025, 12:48:23 PM
Economic Summary
- Oracle (ORCL) reported strong cloud results: cloud revenue ~ $7.1ā7.2B (ā28% YoY) and cloud infrastructure growth far stronger (up 55ā77% in cited metrics), plus a huge jump in remaining performance obligations (RPO/backlog), implying multi-year revenue visibility and accelerating data-center spend.
- Large data-center buildout and AI compute demand are lifting CapEx and vendor revenue across the ecosystem (NVIDIA NVDA, AMD, infrastructure providers), supporting a broad market bid and sector reacceleration.
- Nebius (NEBIUS) signed a ~$17.4B multi-year deal with Microsoft, which management says materially accelerates its AI cloud ARR trajectory and could meaningfully raise forward revenue and adjusted-EBITDA prospects.
- Synopsys (SNPS) missed consensus on revenue and adjusted EPS, which may indicate near-term weakness or competitive pressure in chip-design tools despite secular AI-driven demand for semiconductors.
- Despite historical seasonality, equity indices (QQQ/the Qs) and several regional markets are making new highs, suggesting market breadth and bullish positioning amid AI optimism.
Bullish
- Oracle's (ORCL) cloud infrastructure and massive RPO/backlog signal multi-year revenue reacceleration.
- Nebius's Microsoft $17.4B contract could add material ARR and accelerate AI cloud growth.
- Rubrik reported better-than-feared adjusted metrics and saw an afterāhours rally.
Bearish
- High-capex data center businesses can require dilution and lengthy timelines to profitability (Nebbius risk).
- Synopsys (SNPS) missed revenue and EPS expectations, signaling near-term demand or execution pressure.
- Non-GAAP accounting can mask weakness; Rubrik's adjusted EPS reporting caused market confusion.
Bullish tickers
ORCLNEBIUSRUBRIKDUOL
Bearish tickers
SNPSNEBIUSRUBRIK
ORCL
2 price targets
113300
Bullish
Huge RPO/backlog and rapid cloud infrastructure growth point to multi-year revenue acceleration and market leadership in AI data centers.
Bearish
Missed top and bottom line on GAAP; stock rallies rely heavily on forward guidance and backlog converting to revenue.
NEBIUS
2 price targets
30100
Bullish
Signed $17.4B Microsoft deal, large potential ARR uplift and earlier-than-expected path to adjusted EBITDA profitability.
Bearish
Very high capex business with explicit dilution risk; early-stage public company execution risk remains material.
RUBRIK
1 price targets
100
Bullish
Reported adjusted results ahead of expectations and rallied strongly after hours, indicating market approval.
Bearish
Earnings presentation mixed between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics, creating investor uncertainty despite the beat.
SNPS
Bullish
Plays a critical role in chip design automation and should benefit from sustained AI compute demand long term.
Bearish
Missed revenue and adjusted EPS estimates, suggesting near-term demand or competitive headwinds in EDA tools.
DUOL
Bullish
Re-accelerating top-line growth and strong advertising/subscription trends after recent product developments.
Bearish
Moat concerns and binary-event FUD can pressure the stock despite product tie-ins.
PANW
1 price targets
173
Bullish
Management position/holding referenced; trader noted accumulation in the low-$170s.
People mentioned
Larry EllisonSafra CatzArkady VolozhSatya NadellaChris PatelAmitKashukJeff BezosSam