Sam Badawi
Patreon: Market Update 5/8
5/17/2025, 1:01:36 PM
Economic Summary
- Administration softening tone on trade policy post-Liberation Day
- 10% tariffs likely to remain on all imports as revenue generator
- Tariffs cause one-time price rise not compounding inflation
- Bond market reacting negatively to trade deal
- Indicators point to recession and disinflation ahead
- Shelter costs and rental rates declining rapidly
- Oil prices down and consumer spending slowing
- AI adoption may reduce labor demand
Bullish
- Ad tech companies posting strong earnings and guidance
- Bond yields expected to fall in recessionary environment boosting TLT
- Google share buybacks and diversified revenue streams
- Emerging markets growth for NuBank and MercadoLibre
- Grab poised to dominate Indonesian mobility and delivery after merger
- Cruise lines seen as long-term value plays
- Shelter and oil prices trending down reducing inflation
Bearish
- Potential slowdown in search revenue for Google from AI and changing user behavior
- Bond market signaling inflation may stay higher for longer
- Certain market areas still unrecovered post-Liberation Day
- Norwegian Cruise Line debt rising due to fleet expansion
- Ad tech vulnerable if recession cuts marketing spend
Bullish tickers
TTDTLTGOOGLNUMELIGRABCCL
Bearish tickers
GOOGLTLTNCLH
People mentioned
ChristopherDonald TrumpJerome PowellScott BesantAdam FarooquiPeter OyeAlex KarpPeter BeckWarren BuffettCharlie Munger