Sam Badawi
This CYBERSECURITY Stock Is MISUNDERSTOOD | Neoclouds & Miners
10/4/2025, 9:16:59 AM
Economic Summary
- Hyperscaler capex is accelerating instead of slowing: large cloud providers are signing multi-billion-dollar contracts (Microsoft noted) which fuels demand for data centers and chips (e.g., NVDA, MU, ASML).
- IT/vendor budgeting often includes a year-end spend flush: companies commit unused budgets before year-end, which can create seasonal acceleration for cloud providers and enterprise software (benefiting AMZN/AWS and software vendors).
- Regulatory/tax changes (example: new gambling tax deductibility rules starting 2026) can materially affect industry economics and consumer-facing platforms like DraftKings (DKNG).
Bullish
- Hyperscaler spending and AI inference needs are accelerating, driving sustained data center buildouts.
- Rubrik is growing ~51% with Microsoft backing and positive free cash flow guidance.
- AWS year-end budgeting flush could accelerate cloud spend and re-accelerate AMZN/AWS growth.
- DraftKings could benefit if international competitors are restricted, expanding domestic market share.
Bearish
- Skeptics argue data center demand may be overhyped because ROI on huge capex could be poor.
- AWS growth deceleration (from ~19–20% to ~17%) is used to argue Amazon's near-term weakness.
- High valuations in cybersecurity (e.g., CrowdStrike) and some SaaS names already price in growth.
- DraftKings could be hurt by tax code changes limiting loss deductibility, creating phantom taxable income.
Bullish tickers
NEBIUSRUBRIKAMZNDKNGNVDA
Bearish tickers
NEBIUSCRWDAMZNDKNG
AMZN
Bullish
AWS could re-accelerate with year-end IT budgeting flush and long-term secular cloud/AI demand.
Bearish
AWS growth slowed from ~19–20% to ~17% and mega-caps are currently out of favor.
RUBRIK
3 price targets
100120125
Bullish
Growing ~51%, subscription ARR rising, Microsoft strategic backing, guiding to adjusted profitability and strong long-term upside.
Bearish
Market worried about near-term profitability and may have punished the stock on cautious guidance.
NEBIUS
Bullish
Has large hyperscaler contracts (Microsoft referenced) and sits in a strong secular data-center buildout theme.
Bearish
Runs in data-center names can be volatile and sentiment-driven; valuation concerns if multiple hyperscalers don't follow.
CRWD
Bullish
Leader in endpoint security with strong execution, but much is already priced in.
Bearish
Trading at high multiples (large valuation baked in) making re-acceleration unlikely to surprise to the upside.
DKNG
Bullish
Best-in-class interface and could gain if international competitors face state-level restrictions.
Bearish
Proposed tax code changes limiting gambling loss deductibility could create phantom taxable income and hurt demand.
NVDA
Bullish
Beneficiary of AI inference demand and data-center GPU buildouts; trading at multi-year highs.
Bearish
Priced for perfection at all-time highs, leaving little margin for disappointment.
MSFT
Bullish
Hyperscaler spending and ecosystem partnerships (e.g., backing companies like Rubrik) support continued demand.
HOOD
Bullish
Adding new products (24/7 futures, crypto, options) expanding engagement and monetization.
Bearish
Lacks certain product features (e.g., parlays) in gambling space; fees and product gaps could limit competition.
KTOS
Bullish
Exposure to growing drone and defense markets; noted as a missed earlier opportunity.
SNOW
MDB
MU
Bullish
Memory demand and AI workloads supporting Micron at multi-year highs.
ASML
Bullish
Equipment demand for advanced chips benefits ASML amid AI buildouts.
PANW
Bullish
Platform/network security demand remains strong; strategic breadth vs. point solutions.
FTNT
Bullish
Hardware/network security provider with secular demand for enterprise security.
CVLT
Bullish
Legacy backup vendor with scale but slower growth relative to cloud-native competitors.
People mentioned
SamJeff BezosMark ZuckerbergTom LeeMichael BurryNick MossPam BondiVlad TenevCleo FieldsDanaiJasonSamirJaguar