Sam Badawi

WAR, BUT FIRST OSCAR HEALTH DD | HIDDEN EDGE

Name: WAR, BUT FIRST OSCAR HEALTH DD | HIDDEN EDGE
Uploaded: 2025-06-18T09:39:45Z
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6/18/2025, 9:39:45 AM

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Economic Summary

Bond market dynamics are mixed: TLT saw a bid despite equity weakness and rising oil, indicating unusual disconnection between rates, inflation expectations, and safe-haven flows (TLT).
Fed rate expectations tightened: markets price little chance of a near-term cut, September shows roughly ~54% chance of a cut priced in, December around ~40%, implying a later easing cycle than earlier hopes.
Retail spending data looked weak, signaling a slowing economy which would likely reduce inflationary pressure over time and affect sectors tied to consumer demand.
Housing supply is rising while buyer demand wanes amid higher rates; if demand doesn't recover by autumn, inventories could carry into next year and create a surplus, pressuring home prices.
Oil jumped ~4–5% on Middle East tensions; energy-driven price moves can complicate the inflation outlook and ripple into equities and bond yields.
Potential regulation of stablecoins and related flows could boost demand for T-bills/treasuries, creating a cascade of demand into short-duration sovereign paper.

Bullish

Oscar Health (OSCR) positioned to gain if more people shift into the ACA marketplace.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Cloudflare (NET) hitting highs, benefiting from cyber/security demand.
GitLab (GTLB) appears cheap versus peers with accelerating revenue and supportive analyst targets.
Lemonade (LMND) showing strong chart momentum and accelerating in-force premium growth.
Reddit (RDDT) could monetize AI-driven search/ad opportunities, supporting long-term ad revenue growth.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) attracting retail interest and holding levels above $40.

Bearish

Geopolitical risk (possible Middle East conflict) could trigger a broad market sell-off and recession fears.
Housing faces rising inventory and weakening buyer demand, risking a surplus and downward pressure on home prices.
High-beta and small-cap names are vulnerable in risk-off days and can see sharp drawdowns.
Fed cuts are being repriced later; near-term policy is unlikely to ease, supporting higher rates for longer.

Bullish tickers

OSCRCRWDNETGTLBLMNDRDDTASTSMETA

Bearish tickers

TSLAHOOD

HOOD

Bullish

Showed intraday resilience after mobile technology demo, suggesting some investor interest.

Bearish

Closed down ~2.5% despite intraday comeback; vulnerable on risk-off days and product demo volatility.

TSLA

Bullish

No strong bullish case presented in the transcript.

Bearish

Down about 4% on the day; high-beta, sensitive to market sell-offs.

RDDT

Bullish

Could monetize AI-driven search/ad queries and benefits from unique data and high margins.

Bearish

Adoption/monetization execution risk if AI search doesn't route valuable queries to Reddit.

CRWD

Bullish

Trading at or near highs as cybersecurity demand rises amid geopolitical uncertainty.

NET

Bullish

Reached a 52-week high; benefits from strong cloud and edge demand.

VENTURE GLOBAL

Bullish

Mentioned as catching tailwinds from EU LNG deals and institutional interest (retail notes it quietly performed well).

ASTS

Bullish

Attracting retail attention and holding above $40, suggesting strong short-term investor interest.

TLT

Bullish

Caught a bid despite rising oil and equities weakness, signaling some safe-haven rotation.

Bearish

Bonds haven't exhibited a clear breakout; a large catalyst would be needed for a major move.

OSCR

Bullish

Digital-first, margin-accretive model focused on ACA individual market growth and good NPS; could benefit from policy enabling employer defined contributions to ACA.

Bearish

Policy and lobbying dependence creates execution and regulatory risk if ACA-related provisions shift.

GTLB

3 price targets

456790

Bullish

Cheap relative valuation (EV/NTM ~6x), 26% growth, analyst targets imply material upside.

Bearish

Trading below moving averages and needs time; short-dated options are risky.

LMND

Bullish

In-force premiums accelerating and chart technically strong above key moving averages.

Bearish

High short float and high-beta profile; vulnerable to quick pullbacks.