Sam Badawi
What does Trump’s China Thread MEAN? | Datacenter STRONG
10/11/2025, 4:06:25 AM
Economic Summary
- A single Trump tweet claiming cancellation of his meeting with Xi injected significant uncertainty into markets, driving a broad risk-off move and pushing volatility higher; this could either be posturing or the start of an escalation, which matters for China-exposed equities (e.g., BABA, GRAB).
- China and the U.S. appear to be engaging in bargaining and tit-for-tat measures — e.g., Chinese rare-earths actions mirroring U.S. semiconductor export controls — which creates cyclical geopolitical risk for semiconductors and China tech, while also accelerating China's push for self-sufficiency.
- Despite the pullback, structural demand for AI and data-center capacity (cited example: OpenAI $25B Argentina project) provides a strong tailwind for data-center-related stocks and chipmakers, potentially insulating them from short-term headline volatility.
Bullish
- Data-center and AI-related names remain strong due to large secular tailwinds (e.g., NVDA).
- If the China/US tensions are posturing and earnings are strong, sentiment could quickly recover.
- Some miners and crypto plays still show pockets of green and can outperform in a rotation.
Bearish
- Trump's tweet about cancelling meeting with Xi injected immediate uncertainty, prompting broad sell-offs, especially in China-exposed tech.
- Breaking below the 20-day moving averages on major indices suggests a potential short-term trend reversal and more downside.
- Frothy, high-beta names are vulnerable to rapid de-risking during geopolitical headlines and could see sharp draws.
Bullish tickers
NVDACLSKMARABITF
Bearish tickers
BABAGOOGLPLTRHOODAMZN
NVDA
1 price targets
188
Bullish
Core beneficiary of AI/data-center build-out; data-center tailwinds should support long-term demand.
Bearish
Short-term vulnerability to broad market sell-offs and volatility spikes despite strong AI narrative.
PLTR
1 price targets
180
Bullish
Long-term government and enterprise data contracts could underpin growth if sentiment stabilizes.
Bearish
Sharp intraday declines indicate susceptibility to panic selling and momentum reversals.
HOOD
2 price targets
142145
Bullish
Still a retail fintech growth story if market sentiment reverts and user engagement remains strong.
Bearish
High-beta retail fintech name hit hard on volatility and risk-off flows; options/covered-call roll strategies punished.
GOOGL
Bullish
Large-cap cashflows and ad/revenue resilience may allow recovery after volatility subsides.
Bearish
Significant intraday weakness as broad market sell-off hits mega-cap tech.
BABA
Bullish
If tensions cool, Chinese e-commerce fundamentals and long-term growth could drive recovery.
Bearish
China-tech exposure makes it vulnerable to retaliatory moves and worsening US-China rhetoric.
AMZN
Bullish
Large secular businesses and strong cloud/data-center positioning support medium-term upside.
Bearish
Broke technical support during the sell-off and is sensitive to broad risk-off days.
GRAB
1 price targets
6
Bullish
Seen by some as a buy-the-dip opportunity if macro headlines fade.
Bearish
Caught in the broader risk-off move; sensitive as a growth/EM play.
MARA
Bullish
Crypto-related tailwinds can keep miners attractive in a recovering risk-on environment.
Bearish
Crypto-mining names can be volatile and were hit alongside broader risk-off flows.
BITF
Bullish
Has pockets of strength relative to peers; can outperform if crypto demand rises.
Bearish
Subject to crypto price swings and risk-off selling despite occasional intraday green.
CLSK
Bullish
Beneficiary of AI/data-center tailwinds and infrastructure demand.
Bearish
Data-center and miner exposure could be hit by a broad market sell-off.
DUOL
Bullish
Earnings season may provide a reprieve and opportunity if results beat expectations.
Bearish
Took a hit around earnings season and broader market weakness.
APP
Bullish
If adjusted EBITDA growth materializes, valuation could rerate — tradeable in the short term.
Bearish
SEC probe overhang and stretched multiples could cap near-term upside.
SHOP
Bullish
Some participants view it as a recovery YOLO bet with long-term upside.
Bearish
High-beta growth name vulnerable to rapid de-risking and YOLO-selling.
TSLA
Bullish
Long-term EV demand thesis remains intact for many investors.
Bearish
Cyclical and sentiment-sensitive; can be sold in risk-off episodes.
META
Bullish
Ad recovery and metaverse investments could restore growth expectations.
Bearish
Ad-revenue cyclicality and multiple compression during broad sell-offs.
JD
Bullish
E-commerce fundamentals may reassert if tensions ease.
Bearish
China macro/geopolitical headlines weigh on Chinese internet names.
ADBE
Bullish
Subscription business model provides resilience after short-term volatility.
Bearish
Pulled down with the software/tech group during the risk-off move.
QBTS
Bullish
If fundamentals or sector narrative recover, it could rebound.
Bearish
Called out as down ~5%; vulnerable to intra-day momentum selling.
RIOT
Bullish
Remains tied to crypto cycles and can rally with BTC strength.
Bearish
Crypto-mining peers sold off with broader market risk-on reduction.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpXi JinpingJeff MoonJerome PowellSamAmitRoanMalay