The Compound
Is It Time to Take Some Profits?
10/15/2025, 5:55:51 PM
Economic Summary
- Equities have rallied strongly since the April lows (S&P ~35% and Qs ~45% from April lows), with some individual names like NVIDIA up far more; this increases the chance of periodic corrections but timing is unpredictable.
- Investor approach should depend on whether holdings are core/index exposures or concentrated individual stock bets; rebalancing (trim winners/add laggards) is appropriate for allocation drift.
- A massive intergenerational wealth transfer is underway (trillions mentioned), meaning many households will face inheritance decisions and advisors should prepare for related planning questions.
- For investors in their 40s still in accumulation, the hosts recommend investing with long-term horizons (decades) rather than over-focusing on short-term protection or early retirement.
Bullish
- Let long-term winners run when you have conviction in the company.
- Concentrated, high-conviction positions can materially boost net worth during accumulation.
- Rebalancing into underperforming areas (e.g., international) can be beneficial after large domestic rallies.
- AI winners and growth names have driven outsized returns since April lows.
Bearish
- Broad market elevated after large run; a correction is likely at some stage.
- Rapid short-term gains can be momentum-driven and may not reflect changed fundamentals.
- Holding individual winners without a clear investment thesis risks turning investments into trades.
Bullish tickers
NVDAMCDQQQ
Bearish tickers
CRWDNVDA
NVDA
Bullish
Highlighted as an AI winner; long-term conviction investors should consider letting it run given transformative opportunity.
Bearish
Very large short-term gains create volatility risk and could prompt profit-taking if you lack a long-term conviction.
CRWD
Bullish
As a security/software name, it may warrant long-term ownership if the investor has conviction in its fundamentals.
Bearish
Used as an example of a stock someone might sell because of a market pullback rather than company-specific reasons.
MCD
Bullish
Cited as an example of decades-long compounding returns for long-term investors.
Bearish
Mentioned in a historical anecdote to show that perceived 'missed' opportunities can still compound; no explicit bearish thesis given.
QQQ
Bullish
Has outperformed since the lows and concentrates exposure to technology and AI leaders.
Bearish
Nasdaq/QQQ-style leadership has run hard; elevated leadership increases correction risk.
People mentioned
Ben CarlsonJosh BrownEvanDavisBrianMollyScottJohn CarloSean GrewishDuncanMichaelBill SweetTom Cruise