Never Go All In On Stocks | Animal Spirits 437
- Index concentration is extreme: a handful of mega-cap tech names (notably NVDA) are driving S&P returns, producing sharp divergences between headline returns and breadth indicators; these are coincident effects of index composition rather than clear sell signals.
- Market internals show divergence across cap structures—Russell 2000 up ~12-13% YTD, equal-weight S&P up less—while international markets and emerging markets have outperformed (EM up ~34%), highlighting the value of geographic diversification and currency considerations.
- Risk management reminder: given sequence-of-return risk and uncertainty about how long this rally lasts, reallocating toward bonds or TIPS (e.g., moving from 70/30 to 50/50 depending on circumstances) is a reasonable defensive stance.
- AI and jobs: while AI will affect white‑collar roles over time, claims that ChatGPT immediately caused a collapse in job openings are overstated; U.S. labor churn is large and unemployment remains relatively low (~4–4.3%).
- Infrastructure and capex shift: data-center construction is rapidly rising and closing the gap with office construction, creating knock-on impacts (e.g., land/water competition) and winners among construction and cybersecurity suppliers (CRWD).
- Consumer demand softening in staples: Kraft Heinz warned of weak consumer sentiment and cut organic sales guidance (KHC), suggesting packaged-food companies face headwinds as consumer preferences shift.
- Apple's services, wearables, and buybacks underpin continued strength in AAPL
- Amazon and Google momentum (AMZN, GOOG) shows ongoing market leadership
- Cybersecurity firms (CRWD) poised to benefit from deepfakes and rising security needs
- International and small-cap strength offers diversification opportunities
- Market concentration in a few mega-cap tech names (e.g., NVDA) can create extreme internals mismatch and sudden volatility
- Kraft Heinz cut outlook citing weak consumer sentiment, signaling pressure on packaged-food names (KHC, MDLZ)
- MicroStrategy's premium to its Bitcoin holdings has collapsed, reducing its appeal as a crypto proxy (MSTR)
- Overstated AI job-impact claims could lead to policy or market overreactions