The Compound
The Job Outlook for Recent Graduates
10/26/2025, 3:02:55 PM
Economic Summary
- Labor markets have seen periods of severe difficulty (e.g., the GFC) but historically cooled and eventually absorbed workers; however, the current young cohort faces structural risk because many routine jobs are being automated.
- Automation is replacing grunt work across industries: a Bloomberg report notes OpenAI hired over 100 ex-investment bankers and pays about $150/hour to train models, which could eliminate thousands of junior banking jobs and billions in salaries.
- The speaker is a techno-optimist who believes society will ultimately adapt and improve, but warns of significant near-term displacement and uses Kurt Vonnegut's Player Piano as an allegory for workers made obsolete by machines.
Bullish
- Technology historically creates new opportunities; society adapts over time.
- Long-term benefits from automation despite short-term displacement.
Bearish
- AI automation will eliminate junior banking grunt jobs, wiping out billions in salaries.
- Companies hiring contractors to build AI are accelerating job displacement.
- Young workers face structural, potentially permanent, displacement as routine jobs are automated.
Bearish tickers
OPENAI
OPENAI
Bullish
Advances in AI may provide long-term societal and productivity benefits, with technology creating new opportunities over time.
Bearish
OpenAI's use of ex-bankers to train AI models could replace junior bankers' grunt work, eliminating many jobs and billions in future salaries.
People mentioned
Kurt VonnegutRudy