The Compound
When Does a Bull Market Officially Begin?
10/15/2025, 11:14:53 PM
Economic Summary
- Determining the end of a bear market versus the start of a bull market is more art than science; common thresholds (20% off highs, recapturing half losses, or retaking previous highs) are debated and change investor behavior and narrative timing.
- Historical examples illustrate different regimes: March 2009 acted as a clear market bottom that led to a prolonged rally, whereas the 1974 bottom preceded a choppy recovery that only consolidated into a bull market by the 1980s.
- Market participants disagree on dating bull markets (some cite 2013 as a start); the choice of date affects performance measurement and whether a period is labeled 'bull' or 'continued recovery.'
Bullish
- A decisive bottom can launch long-lasting bull markets, as in March 2009.
- Once new highs are retaken, secular bull narratives can be reestablished.
Bearish
- No single rule marks a bear market's end; definitions are subjective and timing uncertain.
- Recapturing a percentage of losses (e.g., 20% or half) may not indicate a durable bull market.
- Choppy post-bottom action can persist for years before a clear bull trend emerges.
People mentioned
JC